Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
115 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at Noon EDT Wed Jul 10 2013

After coordination with neighboring offices, decided to go ahead
with a flash flood watch in the areas that had the lowest 1-hour
flash flood guidance over the eastern forecast area. The I-65
corridor around Louisville has higher guidance, but with timing of
storms around the afternoon rush hour decided to err on the side of
caution and throw them in as well. Bust potential on the western
side of the area is how long the subsidence from the decaying storms
over Illinois continues to keep a cap over that area. Still, surface
temperatures are rising quickly over our area, so CAPEs already are
up around 3-4 thousand.  All we need is a trigger to get these
storms to push through, and still think that will be from the north.

Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2013

Local WRF and to some extent the HRRR pick up well on current spread
of convection out to our west and north this morning. Bumped up pops
a little over my southwest zones, where some scattered storms have
popped up this morning. Cloud cover is coming in ahead of the
central Illinois convection as well as with the cells to our west.
These clouds should help to temper our highs some today, but
dewpoints are fairly highs, so heat indices likely still will top
out in the mid/upper 90s, perhaps even 100 in the SDF metro.

Storms firing off to our west indicate somewhat of an uncapped
atmosphere, but AMDAR sounding out of SDF has a weak cap at 800 mb,
possibly from sinking air with the cirrus shield our ahead of those
storms in central Illinois. As of this writing, that subsidence
looks like it is weakening the cells just west of Hancock and Ohio
counties. Think this cap will be long enough to allow what the local
WRF shows as a line of storms moving in from the north later this
afternoon. By then soundings indicate plenty of CAPE despite the
cloud cover, so these storms will have enough instability to stay
together and producing damaging winds and possibly some hail. We'll
have to get fairly tall storms to get the hail to survive down to
the surface, given a very moist airmass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2013

...Strong to Severe Storms Likely This Afternoon Along With Locally
Heavy Rainfall...

In the near term, passing mid-level wave now in Ohio will continue
to track eastward early this morning.  Bulk of the convection
associated with the wave will pass northeast of our area, but some
isolated-scattered showers will be possible mainly across our
eastern half this morning.  Clouds are rapidly clearing out to the
west, so we should see some partial clearing by sunrise in the
central and western sections.  Temperatures will remain for the
remainder of the night with readings bottoming out in the
lower-middle 70s in most locations with upper 70s being more likely
down in the urban centers.

Next mid-level wave within the mean flow will approach the region
later this morning and into the afternoon hours.  Expect convection
to develop over the next few hours from MO into IL with much of
region remaining fairly dry.  In fact, it appears that we'll likely
see some partly to mostly sunny skies this morning which will allow
solar insolation to really get temperatures warmed up.  By mid-late
morning, convection to our northwest will begin to push eastward.
As the mid-level wave and associated surface boundary approach, we
expect convection to become more widespread during the afternoon and
into the evening hours.

Regarding convective potential and intensity, much of our region
will reside on the southern edge of the westerlies this afternoon.
This places much of the better shear to our north.  However, with
the expected insolation this morning, we should see temperatures
warm into the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s in some spots.  This
combined with dewpoints in the lower-mid 70s will result in strong
instability developing as cooler mid-level temperatures overspread
the region.

Convection will probably be multi-modal with lines and segments
being likely.  Given the decreasing shear profile from NE to SW
across our region, it appears that damaging winds/microbursts and
large hail will be the primary severe weather threats across our
region.  With the wet ground in many places in central KY,
sub-severe winds could easily result in trees coming down fairly
easily. In addition to the severe weather threat, precipitable
water values are still forecast to run quite high this afternoon
with readings in the 1.9-2.0 inch range.  This will result in
locally heavy rainfall with any of the storms that develop.  Given
the rainfall over the past weekend, we are still dealing with fairly
wet grounds.  Thus, the torrential rainfall with this afternoon's
storms will have the capability of producing flash flooding.  The
storms look to have some movement to them, so the flooding threat
could be more attributed to training of cells as well.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into the evening
hours, but should diminish with the loss of daytime heating this
evening.  We should see a diminishing trend of PoPs from NW to SE
through the overnight hours with much of southern Indiana and
western/NC KY going dry by Thursday morning.  Overnight lows will
cool into the 60s.  A few scattered storms will be possible across
the east/southeast Thursday morning and into the early afternoon
hours, but most locations should see dry conditions by Thursday
evening.  Highs Thursday will be cooler than Wednesday with readings
in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2013

Drier and cooler air will be working its way into the area Thursday
night in the wake of the cold front. At the surface high pressure
will build in across the Ohio Valley through Friday. A trough aloft
will keep the region in northwesterly flow through Friday, before a
ridge builds across the Great Lakes region.

Dry conditions look to prevail through the weekend, though diurnal
storms will begin creeping back towards the far southeastern
portions of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will
be coolest at the beginning of the period. Lows on Friday morning
will be in the low to mid 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s. By
Sunday lows will be in the upper 60s with highs in the upper 80s.

Moisture return will continue through the beginning of the next work
week. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible
Monday and Tuesday afternoons, especially across south central
Kentucky. Temperatures will continue the slow warming trend with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2013

Atmosphere becoming more unstable with heating and high low-level
humidity. Have storms firing up near each of the sites, though
closest to SDF this hour. Expect a more solid line to move in from
the north, though if the more isolated convection over Kentucky
becomes more widespread that will poke some holes in anything moving
in from the north. For now have tried to place the timing of this
line into each of the sites with stronger wind gusts and IFR
restrictions. Lingering moisture overnight may lead to some MVFR
cigs and vsby into daybreak. Expect a front to pass through the
sites late this evening, bringing more solid northerly winds during
the day Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ077>079-091-092.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ029>043-045>049-
     053>057-064>067-076>078-081-082.

Updates..........RJS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........EER
Aviation.........RJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
135 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

INZ076-077-084-101820-
CRAWFORD IN-ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-
135 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS MOVING INTO ORANGE COUNTY INDIANA...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF BEDFORD TO
13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHOALS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PAOLI...
  ENGLISH...
  ECKERTY AND ABYDEL...
  ORLEANS...
  TASWELL AND MIFFLIN...
  BROWNSTOWN AND YOUNGS CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 8618 3842 8625 3842 8626 3840 8625
      3839 8626 3836 8626 3835 8628 3832 8627
      3832 8629 3830 8627 3827 8627 3826 8668
      3869 8669 3869 8632 3873 8631 3876 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 272DEG 22KT 3871 8653 3850 8667

TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
153 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

KYZ045-053-054-101825-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-NELSON KY-
153 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SMALL THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE 1/2 INCH HAIL IN LARUE...MARION
AND NELSON COUNTIES...

AT 144 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SMALL BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF HODGENVILLE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND HALF
INCH HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  NEW HAVEN AND LYONS...
  BLUE GAP...
  GETHSEMANE AND CULVERTOWN...
  BALLTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8575 3765 8575 3771 8570 3778 8541
      3773 8539 3772 8540 3771 8538 3766 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 257DEG 19KT 3766 8565

JBS
JBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
200 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

KYZ030-031-033-034-101825-
HENRY KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-SHELBY KY-
200 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 149 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SMALL BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA.  THE
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ST. MATTHEWS...
  PROSPECT...
  OKOLONA...
  LYNDON...
  LOUISVILLE...
  EMINENCE AND PEWEE VALLEY...
  ORCHARD GRASS HILLS AND PARK LAKE...
  TARASCON AND LIRO...
  BUCKNER AND DEMPLYTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3856 8500 3852 8502 3850 8501 3819 8529
      3807 8578 3820 8581 3837 8560 3857 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 223DEG 18KT 3838 8525 3822 8572

JBS