Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 PM PDT WED SEP 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP ACROSS
NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MANY STORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

INSTABILITY MOUNTING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING. CUMULUS FIELD IS
QUITE AGITATED WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS PLACING CAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS OF NOON. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
GRIDS. EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY, AS
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE EASILY PAST 5 PM THIS EVENING, AND
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. MONSOON MOISTURE IS STILL VERY HEALTHY ACROSS
NEVADA, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER HOLDING NEAR 1 INCH NEAR ELKO, AND
AS HIGH AS 1.3 INCHES NEAR WENDOVER AND TONOPAH. STORM MOTION WITH
INITIAL CELLS IN CENTRAL NEVADA IS 10-20 KTS, BUT STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING DESPITE THIS MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO TONIGHT. BULK
SHEAR AS OF NOON IS 30-35 KTS ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES,
SO THAT IS STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY DISPLAY SOME ORGANIZATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE
NEVADA BORDER WITH OREGON AND IDAHO.

THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT ACTIVE PATTERN OF MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED LATELY, FINALLY BEGINS TO
CHANGE. CLOSED LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON EDGES INTO
SW OREGON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS: FINALLY
PUSH MUCH DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NEVADA, AND INCREASE SW WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE DRY AIR AND INCREASED WINDS WILL BE MOST
NOTICEABLE ACROSS NW NEVADA AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WHERE WIND/RH
ISSUES WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MEANWHILE, EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ONE MORE TIME EAST OF A
OWYHEE-ELKO-EUREKA LINE AFTER NOON ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT
12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO CONFIDENT MORE STORMS
WILL FORM IN THESE ZONES.

FRIDAY...DRIER AIR MAKES MORE HEADWAY INTO NEVADA, RESTICTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
UTAH BORDER. INSTABILITY IS FURTHER RESTRICTED TO MAINLY SE ELKO,
SE EUREKA, EASTERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. MONSOON MOISTURE
REFUSES TO BE SCOURED OUT OF THESE ZONES ON FRIDAY, WITH PW
HOLDING NEAR A HEALTHY ONE INCH ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. 12Z GFS/NAM
BOTH FORECAST STRONG INSTABILITY IN THESE SE ZONES. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THESE ZONES AS A RESULT.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, COMPARED TO THURSDAY'S READINGS. ALSO MUCH
COOLER /JUST CLOSER TO NORMAL/ IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA FRIDAY MORNING.  TURNER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE CWA PINNED BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON...AND A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH UP INTO NORTHERN NYE...WHITE PINE...AND THE EASTERN MOST
PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE LOW OVER THE
PAC NW AND THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BOTH DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM
NEVADA. AS THIS HAPPENS MOISTURE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA
DISSIPATES. WITH MODELS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT...KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA AS PWS OF .5 TO .65 PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA MID-WEEK AND MAY COMBINE WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY TO TOUCH OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHICH MAY BRING VIS TO 6SM. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINS TODAY WILL BE AT KEKO AND KELY AS MOST ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. FOR THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO EASTERN
AREAS WITH KELY BEING THE MAIN CONCERN AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINS REMAIN A THREAT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER ZONE 467 THURSDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MOISTURE LINGERS OVER EASTERN AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. LIKE
THURSDAY...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

&&

99/96/96/96

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