Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1046 AM PDT WED SEP 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP ACROSS
NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MANY STORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ZONE 467 IN NORTHWEST NEVADA...WHICH
WILL BE IN EFFECT ON THURSDAY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 9 PM PDT. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 810 AM /

SYNOPSIS...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP ACROSS
NEVADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MANY STORMS WILL AGAIN PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.

UPDATE...SENT OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, TO THE LIKELY/NUMEROUS
CATEGORY IN MANY CASES. 12Z NAM AND THE 3-KM HRRR ARE FORECASTING
ANOTHER BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN
AROUND NOON. THIS MORNING'S ELKO SOUNDING IS STILL VERY MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1 INCH, WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF
ONLY 80 DEGREES. STORM MOTION AGAIN TODAY WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 10-20 MPH, BUT SO FAR THAT HAS DONE LITTLE TO HINDER THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE PAST
5 PM, WITH SOME STORMS LASTING ALL NIGHT AGAIN, SO EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING. SHEAR DOES
INCREASE SOME ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CLOSED LOW WEST OF OREGON, SO ALSO EXPECTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDERS.  TURNER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 316 AM /

SYNOPSIS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS ALL ACROSS THE SILVER STATE AGAIN TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM CELLS LINGERED PAST MIDNIGHT...IN WHITE PINE COUNTY
AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. STILL A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
OCCURRING AT 3 AM PDT...EVEN IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS A COUPLE
UNDETECTABLE SHORTWAVES CUT THROUGH THE WEST. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS
THE TAIL END OF A COUPLE 250 MB JET STREAKS MERGING OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD THEREAFTER SHUT
DOWN UNTIL HEATING INSTIGATES MORE CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE OVER OREGON
BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD POSITION OVER COLORADO AND
KANSAS HOWEVER THE INCOMING UPPER LOW WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT THE
MOIST FLOW ORIGINATING NEAR THE BAJA REGION.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
TODAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY RESIDUAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MORE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE DRY UPPER LOW WILL
SHOVE THE MOIST FLOW EAST BY THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE FORECAST
PERIOD COMMENCES WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A POSITIVE TILT TROF
MOVING INTO THE WEST...DISPLACING THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NCEP AND NON-NCEP MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS TIME ELAPSES...THE UPPER TROF WILL NUDGE
THE RIDGE EASTWARD...AND THIS PROGRESSION WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OF
THE MONSOONAL FLOW...USHERING...A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE SILVER
STATE. ALTHOUGH...WITH PWS HOVERING AROUND .75 OF AN INCH ALONG
THE UTAH/NV BORDER...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER ELKO AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES. BY THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS START TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE...BUT GENERALLY DEPICT WIDESPREAD NORTHWEST
DRY FLOW OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. SENSIBLE
WEATHER-WISE EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO...KELY AND KTPH.
HOWEVER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WILL KEEP VC TS IN TAFS. IF THE STORMS
MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL EXPECT...FLOODING RAINS...GUSTY WINDS...TURBULENCE
AND SMALL HAIL. THE TURBULENCE GUIDANCE FROM THE AVIATION WEATHER
CENTER SUGGESTS THAT ANY NON-CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE OVER THE REGION
WOULD BE LIGHT. OFTEN MONSOON AIR MASSES ARE SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT...EXPECTING TS OVER EASTERN NV ON THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KEKO AND KELY.

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND FLASH FLOODING OR DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY IN SOME AREAS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN NEVADA
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

&&

96

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
123 PM PDT WED SEP 4 2013

NVZ040-041-042045-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY NV-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY NV-
123 PM PDT WED SEP 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NYE COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM
PDT...

AT 124 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 47 MILES EAST OF TONOPAH...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH. MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG STATE ROUTE 375 AND US HIGHWAY 6 ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AS PONDING OF WATER ON THESE ROADS CAN LEAD TO
SLICK SPOTS.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   WARM SPRINGS...
   AT THE JUNCTION OF US HIGHWAY 6 AND STATE ROUTE 375...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 11663 3824 11619 3803 11625 3804 11651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 171DEG 19KT 3806 11636

86

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