Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
240 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT IN EAST
TEXAS MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.
THESE SURFACE FEATURES AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE...CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
ARLATEX BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IS GIVING RISE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AT THIS TIME. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME SURFACE BASE. MODEL FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW STRAIGHT
LINE SHEAR OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS LINES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BOWING SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODERATE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION. SO HAIL IS A POSSIBLE THREAT. IN ADDITION
...DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE SOIL REMAINS SATURATED. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALMOST 200 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW ENHANCING HEAVY
RAIN PARAMETERS...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOWS MOVES THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOMORROW...STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PRODUCE WEST WINDS 20 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH OF 40 MPH LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE SURFACE FRICTION IS MINIMAL. THE REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND RETROGRADE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. THIS ALL
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE GETTING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AND
THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT MEASURED AT EAST 42 KT ACROSS WEST LOUISIANA AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS SPEED...ARRIVAL TIMES ARE ESTIMATED KBTR
23Z...KMCB 2345Z...KHDC/KHUM 00Z...KMSY 0030Z...KNEW/KASD
0100Z...KGPT 0145Z. GRADIENT WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AND LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEER LIKELY TO ABOUT 3KFT PRIOR TO WIND SHIFT. HARD WIND SHIFT
WITH WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS POST-FRONTAL AND END TO CONVECTION FROM
WEST TO EAST. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GALE FORCE WEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...ORANGE
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             MONITORING HEAVY RAIN
             MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  58  36  63 /  40  10  10  10
BTR  45  62  41  66 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  47  62  41  66 /  50  10  10  10
MSY  50  60  45  66 /  40  10  10  10
GPT  49  63  42  66 /  60  10  10  10
PQL  50  65  40  66 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...AND WALTHALL.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1149 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-260600-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1149 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW
OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE REPEAT HEAVY RAIN OCCURS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE WITH WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH TUESDAY.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON TIDAL LAKES AND
SOUNDS IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA.
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE WITH WEST WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH ON TUESDAY.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS IS IN
EFFECT ON TUESDAY.

A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY.
SEVERAL AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ONGOING
FLOODING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

24/RR

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