Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS New Orleans, LA

850 
WWUS54 KLIX 250957
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

LAC063-251007-
/O.CAN.KLIX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-130225T1015Z/
LIVINGSTON LA-
357 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IS
CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CST MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3063 9008 3042 9007 3037 9016 3038 9020
      3036 9024 3025 9033 3022 9039 3016 9045
      3020 9046 3022 9044 3026 9044 3028 9041
      3036 9049 3056 9052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 251DEG 36KT 3039 9039

$$

LAC095-103-105-251015-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-130225T1015Z/
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA-ST. TAMMANY LA-TANGIPAHOA LA-
357 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CST
FOR SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY AND NORTHEASTERN
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISHES...

AT 354 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PONCHATOULA...OR 9
MILES SOUTH OF HAMMOND...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO W LK
PONTCHARTRAIN BUOY...ROBERT...MADISONVILLE AND COVINGTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CST MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 9008 3042 9007 3037 9016 3038 9020
      3036 9024 3025 9033 3022 9039 3016 9045
      3020 9046 3022 9044 3026 9044 3028 9041
      3036 9049 3056 9052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 251DEG 36KT 3039 9039

$$

209 
WWUS54 KLIX 251019
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

LAC095-103-105-251029-
/O.EXP.KLIX.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-130225T1015Z/
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA-ST. TAMMANY LA-TANGIPAHOA LA-
419 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...WEST
CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY AND NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISHES
HAS EXPIRED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CST MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3063 9008 3042 9007 3037 9016 3038 9020
      3036 9024 3025 9033 3022 9039 3016 9045
      3020 9046 3022 9044 3026 9044 3028 9041
      3036 9049 3056 9052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 251DEG 36KT 3039 9039

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
WHERE STORMS WILL TRAIN IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LEFT BATON ROUGE OUT
OF THE WATCH...BUT THE PARISHES JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ARE
INCLUDED. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AND
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/

.AVIATION...

..06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING PERIODS IFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KBTR AND KHDC THROUGH 12Z.  CEILINGS WILL
FALL AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS...WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND 500 FEET AND
VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 5 MILES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE LIGHTER
SHOWERS.  OVERALL...EXPECT TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS BE THE RULE AT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12-15Z.  AFTER 15Z...CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE TO AROUND 1500-2000 FEET AS AN ELEVATED INVERSION
BEGINS TO MIX OUT.  EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOP
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH A MUCH STRONGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL INITIALLY IMPACT KBTR AROUND 20Z...AND THEN SPREAD TO KGPT BY
02Z.  EXPECT TO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS...STRONG
WINDS...HAIL...AND TORNADOES ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTIVE SQUALL.  32

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT FORECASTS/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THIS
EVENING TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED BASED ON CONVENTIONAL
RADAR DATA FROM SLIDELL AND DUAL POL PRODUCTS FROM LAKE CHARLES
WHICH HAVE BOTH INDICATED STRONG HAIL SIGNATURES...SOME LARGER
THAN GOLFBALL SIZE. MAIN HAIL CORES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY OVER
UNPOPULATED MARSH/SWAMP AREAS...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE STORMS
AFFECT MORE INLAND/POPULATED AREAS. HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE EMPHASIZED THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION CAN FORM NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL SECTIONS. ANY STORMS NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS. 22/TD

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT AT THE AIRPORTS...BUT ESPECIALLY SO FOR ANY
FLIGHT PATHS/ROUTES THROUGH THE TSRA AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN TSRA ACTIVITY AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THIS EVENINGS FLIGHT. THE SKY WAS OVERCAST AT
RELEASE WITH A LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS NEAR 4K FEET. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED FROM NEAR 038K FEET THROUGH JUST ABOVE 7K FEET. DRY AIR
IS IN PLACE ABOVE 10K FEET. MOISTURE RETURNS NEAR 18K FEET. THE PW
VALUE IS AT 1.27 INCHES. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
EASTERLY THROUGH 3K FEET. THE WINDS ABOVE 3K FEET VEER AND ARE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT. MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH 5K FEET ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15KTS. THE WINDS ARE
100KTS OR MORE FROM 29K FEET AND ABOVE. THERE IS A JET MAX OF
120KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 37K FEET. WITH THE ADVANCES WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE FOLLOWING SEVERE WEATHER INDICES
FROM THIS EVENINGS FLIGHT...THE TOTAL TOTAL INDICE OF 55 INDICATES
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...K-INDEX OF 29 INDICATES
MODERATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SWEAT INDEX OF 333 INDICATES THAT
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. WET-BULB ZERO IS AROUND 9900 FEET
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/

FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 36
HOURS...

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. OVERALL
IT WAS A QUIET DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES EARLY AND THEN CLOUDS QUICKLY
STREAMED NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA HAS ALREADY LED TO LGT SHRA
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE COAST AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. WARM FRONT IS ON THE MOVE NOW AND AS OUR STORMS
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVER NIGHT THE SFC LOW OVER NRN
TEXAS WILL DEEPEN AND DRAW THE WARM FRONT NORTH QUICKLY. BY 12Z THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE 10/12 CORRIDOR WITH MOISTURE QUICKLY
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO EVEN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN INCREASING LL JET AND H85 THETA E
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 330K. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BE QUITE EFFICIENT.
OVERALL 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING
TO NEAR 15-16C...VT WILL BE NEAR 29...AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS COULD
DROP TO NEAR 9K FT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM OVER NIGHT ALONG WITH
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE
INITIALLY BUT AFT 10Z WHEN THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED MORE INLAND
THERE IS THE RISK THAT SFC BASED CONVENTION COULD DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AND PROVIDE A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO RISK. THIS IS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT IS A CONCERN.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW WE MAY SEE A TEMPORARY BREAK AS THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE
MID LEVEL LOW WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY
AND BEGIN TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE AFTN AND EVNG HRS.
AT THE SFC THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVNG AS IT MOVES INTO THE OZARKS. BOTH THE DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW
AND THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO COLD FRONT TO ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BUT HOW
WIDESPREAD IS A GOOD QUESTION. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES FURTHER NORTH
INTO MS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR. LIFT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD PUSH WEST FAST ENOUGH TO BRING CONVECTION TO AN END
TOMORROW EVNG BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN CASE
THINGS SLOW DOWN A TAD.

AS FOR THE SEVERE ASPECT THINGS COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE TOMORROW.
THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY AREA LINING UP FOR A POSSIBLE OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE DYNAMICS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...H5 WINDS INCREASING TO 75KTS(100 KT MAX
BACK IN SE TX) AND POSSIBLY MOVING UNDER THE LFQ OF A 130KT JET AT
H25. THE SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
SPEED SHEAR THAN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALTHOUGH THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HAS INCREASED AND THE BELIEF IS THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE ONLY INDICATING MAX
0-3KM SRH NEAR 250 M2/S2 BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH 70KTS.
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY LL WINDS COULD BACK MORE THAN
WHAT THE MODELS ARE FCSTING AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THIS SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS FEW IS
THE THERMODYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR. LL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. COMBINE THAT
WITH A STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRIMED.
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 7 C/KM...ML CAPE WILL APPROACH 1200
J/KG...AND SHOWALTERS WILL PEAK OUT AT -5 TO -6C.

SO WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING ALONG WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION IS CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. WE ARE EXPECTING SCT-NUM CONVECTION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES BUT IF THE SHEAR IS GREATER AS ANTICIPATED THAN THE
TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE IN THESE DISCRETE CELLS.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ASPECT...PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1.4 TO MAYBE 1.7
AND WITH THAT ANY TSRA WILL BE ABLE TO DROP A GOOD BIT OF RAIN IN A
SHORT TIME. ADD THIS TO THE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND STORM TOTALS COULD
RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNT NEAR 6 OR MORE.

ALL ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN DURING THE EVNG HRS AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IF NOT EARLIER. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THINGS RATHER
QUIET AFTER OUR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN LATE THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...FIRST HARD FREEZE
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AS WE MOVE INTO MARCH. PREVIOUS LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FCST HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

WAVE/LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
OR OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MAINTAIN LOWERED THICKNESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NEXT WEEKEND
AND FREEZES MAY OCCUR FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE LAND FORECAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. /FZ/

MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM NOW AND REMAIN HAZARDOUS
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. SFC LOW IN NRN TX WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THIS IS ALREADY LEADING TO WINDS INCREASING
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP AND COULD BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND
25-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND
SCY IS OUT FOR ALL ZONES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MON
AFTN/EVNG WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN NW AND
COULD EVEN APPROACH GALE CRITERIA. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE OPEN WATERS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO IMPROVE LATE TUE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  58  37  61 /  40  10  10  10
BTR  45  62  41  62 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  47  62  41  64 /  50  10  10  10
MSY  50  60  45  62 /  40  10  10  10
GPT  49  63  42  64 /  60  10  10  10
PQL  52  65  40  64 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...AND WALTHALL.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-251800-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AFTER 3 AM... A WARM FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE REPEAT HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

MULTIPLE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA.
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ONGOING
FLOODING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

22/TD

LAZ056-057-250630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING ST. JAMES PARISH...
ASSUMPTION PARISH...

AT 1122 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF STEPHENSVILLE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
SOUTH OF PIERRE PART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PAINCOURTVILLE...NAPOLEONVILLE...CONVENT...LUTCHER AND GRAMERCY

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HAIL             NAPOLEONVILLE           29.94N 91.03W
02/24/2013  E0.88 INCH       ASSUMPTION         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PGRIGSBY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1226 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             CONVENT                 30.02N 90.83W
02/25/2013  E1.00 INCH       ST. JAMES          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL LASTED APPROXIMATELY 15 MINUTES.

&&

PGRIGSBY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             1 SW LUTCHER            30.05N 90.72W
02/25/2013  E1.75 INCH       ST. JAMES          LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN ST. JAMES PARISH
            VIA FACEBOOK PAGE.

1240 AM     HAIL             PASCAGOULA              30.37N 88.55W
02/25/2013  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN PASCAGOULA VIA
            FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

98/SO

LAZ040-MSZ077-080-250800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1257 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST AFFECTING PEARL RIVER COUNTY...
HANCOCK COUNTY...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...

AT 1254 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MANDEVILLE...OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MANDEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...ABITA
SPRINGS...LACOMBE...SLIDELL AIRPORT...SLIDELL...PEARL RIVER...
PICAYUNE...PEARLINGTON AND STENNIS SPACE CENTER

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SUB SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CST MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MSZ080>082-250900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
201 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST AFFECTING HANCOCK COUNTY...JACKSON
COUNTY...HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 159 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
POPLARVILLE TO DIAMONDHEAD TO 6 MILES WEST OF WAVELAND...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
DIAMONDHEAD...WAVELAND...BAY ST. LOUIS...PASS CHRISTIAN...LYMAN...
LONG BEACH...SAUCIER...GULFPORT AIRPORT...GULFPORT...BILOXI...ST.
MARTIN...OCEAN SPRINGS...VANCLEAVE...GULF PARK ESTATES AND GAUTIER

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CST MONDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.