Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1253 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ATTM...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHWAY
165 AND I-10 CORRIDORS. THE NAME OF THE GAME WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE IS BASICALLY TIMING THE CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS. AFTER A BIT OF
A RESPITE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...SHOULD SEE
MORE CONVECTION FIRE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE/GOOD INSTABILITY/NUMEROUS LEFTOVER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES/ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013/

UPDATE...NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM.
DID REISSUE WCN WHICH ORIGINALLY INCLUDED LOWER ST MARTIN. DESPITE
RATHER VIGOROUS LOOKING THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY WELL BEHAVED. HEAVY RAINS AND EXTREME AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN THE RULE.

CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE ONGOING CONVECTION TO BUILD FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD AT THIS
TIME. NO UPDATE COMING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013/

DISCUSSION...CAPPING HAS HELD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NO
MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING RAPIDLY EAST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR
THIS AREA...AND MAY BE SEEING ANOTHER WATCH FURTHER EAST THAT MAY
IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...

MID-TEXAS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MOVING ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELS...BACKED UP BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
CONVECTION TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT
TRACKS EAST...WHILE CONTINUING A SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT. THUS
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TO 70 PERCENT. SPC CURRENTLY
CARRYING THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...AND HAS JUST NOW
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE TH PRIMARY
THREAT BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

SOMEWHAT MORE CHALLENGING FOR FRIDAYS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE THIS
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. BUMPED RAIN CHANCES BACK UP TO LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO
MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.
RAIN CHANCES THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF NORTHERN
STREAM TROF ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SPC CONTINUES THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY.

SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. NEXT RAIN
CHANCE ARRIVES THURSDAY.

MARINE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY...BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO RAINS WHILE WINDS
RETURN TO NORTHERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  76  65  78  59 /  50  50  20  10  10
KBPT  67  77  65  79  61 /  50  50  20  10  10
KAEX  65  76  61  80  56 /  50  40  20  10  10
KLFT  67  78  65  78  59 /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
102230-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
523 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
...AS TRAVELING DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END ON SUNDAY. T

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-102230-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
523 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
COASTAL SEGMENT BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY...TRAVELING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDMORNING SATURDAY. RAIN WILL
BE COMING TO AN END WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
102 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HAIL             ORANGE                  30.10N 93.76W
05/10/2013  M1.00 INCH       ORANGE             TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN ORANGE

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
109 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 AM     HAIL             5 S LAKE CHARLES        30.14N 93.20W
05/10/2013  M0.75 INCH       CALCASIEU          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MARBLE TO PENNY-SIZED HAIL FALLING AT THE OFFICE. OTHER
            REPORTS FROM JUST SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES AS WELL.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
111 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HAIL             4 SSW LAKE CHARLES      30.16N 93.23W
05/10/2013  M1.00 INCH       CALCASIEU          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL NEAR GAUTHIER ROAD SOUTH OF
            LAKE CHARLES

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
114 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     HAIL             LAKE CHARLES            30.21N 93.20W
05/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       CALCASIEU          LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ON 5TH AVENUE IN LAKE
            CHARLES. NUMEROUS OTHER REPORTS OF MARBLE TO PENNY-SIZED
            HAIL FROM SOUTH SIDE OF LAKE CHARLES.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
118 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     HAIL             2 SSW LAKE CHARLES      30.18N 93.22W
05/10/2013  E1.25 INCH       CALCASIEU          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL
            FROM SOUTH SIDE OF LAKE CHARLES.

&&

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