Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

ABBREVIATED FORECAST DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AMPLE INSTABILITY WORKS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR. AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE A CONCERN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY INVOF ANY BOUNDARY WHERE LOW WIND PROFILES ARE
VEERING /NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION/.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN...WITH PWATS ALREADY ABOVE
1.50" ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...QUICK STORM MOTION MAY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
WILL LEAD TO A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

30 POPS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO BECOME
CENTERED IN FAR NW KANSAS EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NW INTO NWRN NEBR AND A WARM FRONT ALONG
INTERSTATE 80. STORM SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES AND SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. INCREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT. FAVORED THE NAM AND ECMWF WHICH KEEP CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR POPS WHILE THE GFS KEEP SATURDAY MAINLY DRY
WITH LOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...A SEMI STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO REMAIN
JUST SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF AREA. A FLATTENED RIDGE TO OUR WEST
WILL BRING A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH DAILY CHANCES REACHING 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
GEM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS. WITH PROXIMITY OF SURFACE
FRONT AND ENHANCED POPS...TEMPERATURES TO RANGE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
EPISODES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING
SAID...MAINTAINED THE GENERAL IDEA OF ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY/THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS.  LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
STORM. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO KEEP THUNDER AT KLBF IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AFTER 23Z THIS EVENING AND BEFORE 04Z.  OTHERWISE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
STORMS OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAINTAINING A CONSISTENT FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...FOG
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS POINT IN TIME AT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-021715-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1201 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 /1101 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND ALSO ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY IN
CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

AFTER FRIDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT CONTINUES STALLED ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

JWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
209 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             6 NW CROOKSTON          42.99N 100.84W
08/01/2013  E0.88 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
215 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             7 WNW BUTTE             42.95N 98.98W
08/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       BOYD               NE   PUBLIC

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
228 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
08/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            TORRENTIAL RAIN ALSO WAS REPORTED.

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
257 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             4 ESE EMMET             42.45N 98.74W
08/01/2013  E1.25 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

&&

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
310 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ008-009-012100-
BROWN NE-ROCK NE-
310 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROCK AND NORTHERN
BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 305 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SMITH FALLS STATE PARK...OR
21 MILES EAST OF VALENTINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  AINSWORTH...
  LONG PINE...
  BOBCAT STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
  ANTELOPE PEAK...
  KELLER PARK STATE RECREATION AREA...
  PINE GLEN STATE WILDLIFE REFUGE...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 239 AND 255.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 183 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 194 AND 206.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

STOPPKOTTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             6 S ONEILL              42.37N 98.65W
08/01/2013  E1.50 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

&&

MARTIN