Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

AT 07Z...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
A BOUNDARY FROM THERE TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND ALSO TO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PRECIPITABLE WATER DERIVED FROM THE LOW ORBITING MICROWAVE
SENSORS SHOWED A POOL OF 35-38MM OVER WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
25-28MM POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WOULD INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASES TO LESS THAN 30J/KG ON
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY TODAY. THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AS THE STORMS COME SOUTH...THEY
WILL PICK UP MORE ENERGY AND COALESCE INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS
THEY REACH SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF
2500-3500J/KG IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH THAT ENERGY
LEVEL AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. STORMS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OF 3-6 HOURS REGARDING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR TSTMS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE...SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IF THE TIMING OF THE IMPULSE
CORRESPONDS WITH PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO 90
DEGREES SOUTHWEST.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW TO OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE FOUND.
HIGHS WILL COOL SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. A MAJOR COOL DOWN CONTINUES TO BE
ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF THURSDAY...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH A STRONG CANADIAN COLD
FRONT PLUNGING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW. HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE INTO ONLY THE LOWER 70S IF THIS SCENARIO
PANS OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
EPISODES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING
SAID...MAINTAINED THE GENERAL IDEA OF ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY/THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS.  LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
STORM. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO KEEP THUNDER AT KLBF IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AFTER 23Z THIS EVENING AND BEFORE 04Z.  OTHERWISE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF
STORMS OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAINTAINING A CONSISTENT FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...FOG
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS POINT IN TIME AT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-021715-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1201 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 /1101 AM MDT THU AUG 1 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND ALSO ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY IN
CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

AFTER FRIDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT CONTINUES STALLED ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

JWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1046 AM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HAIL             7 E ERICSON             41.78N 98.54W
08/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       WHEELER            NE   PUBLIC

&&

SNIVELY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
139 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

NEZ006-009-010-011930-
HOLT NE-KEYA PAHA NE-ROCK NE-
139 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROCK...SOUTHEASTERN
KEYA PAHA AND WESTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF NEWPORT...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BASSETT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEWPORT...
  STUART...
  ATKINSON...
  EMMET...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 265 AND 301.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

JACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
204 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     HAIL             4 N CROOKSTON           42.98N 100.75W
08/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
209 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             6 NW CROOKSTON          42.99N 100.84W
08/01/2013  E0.88 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
215 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             7 WNW BUTTE             42.95N 98.98W
08/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       BOYD               NE   PUBLIC

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
228 PM CDT THU AUG 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
08/01/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            TORRENTIAL RAIN ALSO WAS REPORTED.

&&

CARMEL