Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
322 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS LIFTING THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
FORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRODUCING COOL
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
SFC LOW CENTERED IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT ARCING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTION MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT SUPERCELLS ARE MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH MORE OF A MULTICELL ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE 0 TO 3 KM
HELICITY VALUES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE...AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA BY LATE EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY END BY MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY...AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND DRIFT EAST THROUGH THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE OPENING UP
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. THIS WILL PULL COOL AIR INTO
THE FCST AREA WITH H1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING TO THE LOW 550S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S DROP TO 60S SATURDAY.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND THEN DO A LOOP BACK SOUTH FRIDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
UP THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA FRIDAY AND SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 MPH...BUT MAINLY ACROSS WRN NEB DUE
TO THE TIMING OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FCST AREA. THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT ACROSS NCNTL NEB SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND DIURNAL COOLING MAY DAMPEN WINDS TO 20 MPH IN
THOSE AREAS.

COLD AIR ALOFT...H500 MB TEMPS -16C TO -20C THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NRN NEB. THE BEST FORCING FOR RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTN
AND NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE FCST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FCST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN. RETURN FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ULTIMATELY LEADING UP TO A DESTABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AND A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUS IT
WOULD APPEAR THE INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TOGETHER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER HIGHS WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THAT WINDS ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THE
ODDS THAT THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WOULD BE SEVERE ARE HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
MVFR WILL ALSO RESIDE IN AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO QUITE WIDESPREAD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING OVERALL CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THUNDERSTORMS
AND PWAT OVER 1.25 INCHES LIFT NORTH TONIGHT. FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL
BE CONTINGENT ON CELL TRAINING AND/OR CELLS MERGERS. MEAN STORM
MOTION APPEARS TO BE AT 20 MPH OR SO WHICH IS FAST FOR A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT EXCLUSIVE OF MERGERS AND ECHO TRAINING. EITHER WAY
RADAR WILL BE MONITORED FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION....TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1003 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301515-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1003 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 /903 AM MDT WED MAY 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

TAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
149 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     HAIL             MAXWELL                 41.08N 100.53W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
200 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     HAIL             10 SSE HAYES CENTER     40.38N 100.95W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
201 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     HAIL             10 S HAYES CENTER       40.37N 101.02W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

&&

CMARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
209 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ037-038-292000-
CUSTER NE-LOGAN NE-
209 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LOGAN AND NORTHWESTERN
CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF ARNOLD...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 92 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 239 AND 256.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             10 N BRADY              41.17N 100.37W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

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