Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM. AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 7 FROM AINSWORTH TO NORTH OF BREWSTER. CURRENT WV
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TANDEM OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST WAS LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ATTM AND WAS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND...STRONGER DISTURBANCE WAS
LOCATED OVER NRN UT AND WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE INTO SWRN WYOMING
ATTM. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SERN
COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN KS INTO
NERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM WERE IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIFT INTO NERN PORTIONS OF WYOMING THEN THE
BLACK HILLS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WELL DEFINED DRY LINE WILL
EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWRN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
KS...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS WESTERN KS.
DECENT BULK SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KS...SO STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY LIFT NEWD INTO SWRN NEBRASKA. LIKE
YESTERDAY...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP IN THE H850 TO
H700 LEVEL SO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
FURTHER NORTH SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE NEBR PANHANDLE BUT DECREASED CAPE FURTHER NORTH MAY LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. AS FOR TIMING...AT THIS
TIME...BASED ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVES ARE
LOCATED...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE
IT MAY POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT BASED ON THE OFF HOUR
NAM SOLN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS /DAKOTAS/ DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THEN THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
ROTATES THE LOW FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH...NEARING THE NEB/S DAKOTA
BORDER...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS TAKE MORE OF A STRAIGHT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT...CLOSER TO THE N/S DAKOTA BORDER. AS A RESULT
THE GFS DOES PUSH PRECIP FURTHER TO THE S...INTO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT...NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA. FORECAST DOES WRAP MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA...HOWEVER NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST.

UNTIL THEN...FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WILL SEE A COUPLE OF
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...WHICH COULD SET OFF SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. BEST INSTABILITY IS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...ALONG THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. HIGHEST PROBS ARE CLOSEST TO THE
LOW...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN NEB BORDER. TEMPS REMAIN COOL ACROSS
THE NW...60S...WHERE MORE CLOUDS/ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE
HIGHS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S...MAY 80 ACROSS FAR SW NEB WITH
MORE SUN.

SATURDAY AS THE LOW ROTATES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...A
REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR AND A LOW CHANCE FOR POPS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR NEARLY ALL...WHICH WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK THE NEXT TROUGH WILL DIG
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. MEANWHILE A
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. AS A RESULT MORE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTER A SHORT BREAK SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S OR 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
MVFR WILL ALSO RESIDE IN AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO QUITE WIDESPREAD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING OVERALL CONDITIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1003 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301515-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1003 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 /903 AM MDT WED MAY 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

TAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
133 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     HAIL             CURTIS                  40.63N 100.51W
05/29/2013  M1.00 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL LASTED FOR TEN MINUTES.

&&

TKECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
133 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ026-038-291915-
BLAINE NE-CUSTER NE-
133 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CUSTER AND WESTERN
BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUNNING...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BREWSTER...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DUNNING...
  HAWLEY FLATS...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 230 AND 246.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
149 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     HAIL             MAXWELL                 41.08N 100.53W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
200 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     HAIL             10 SSE HAYES CENTER     40.38N 100.95W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

&&

CMARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
201 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     HAIL             10 S HAYES CENTER       40.37N 101.02W
05/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

&&

CMARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
209 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ037-038-292000-
CUSTER NE-LOGAN NE-
209 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LOGAN AND NORTHWESTERN
CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF ARNOLD...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 92 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 239 AND 256.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

KNUTSVIG