Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

STRONG 500MB CUT OFF LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WARM AIR FLOWING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS /FOLLOWING THE LEE SIDE OF THE 500MB
TROUGHING PATTERN/. CONDITIONS WERE FAVORABLE TODAY FOR A GOOD CONVECTIVE
SET UP...WITH CELLS FIRING UP THIS MORNING ALONG AN AREA OF BEST
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND THEN PUSHING NNE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE
MOMENT...BEST LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA /STILL
CONTINUING NNE. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEER ACROSS THE REGION...A
FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD THE BRUNT OF THE INSTABILITY AS WE HEAD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

BESIDES THIS INITIAL LINE AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS. AS BOTH THE 500MB AND SURFACE
LOW CONTINUE SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST INSTABILITY IS BEING TAPPED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONGOING STORMS...AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TO BE SEVERE AT THIS
TIME. WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODERATED...ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD DROP FROM
TODAY...ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S. BY MONDAY EVENING...LOW WILL
BEGIN LIFTING OFF TO THE NE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIR
WORKING IN QUICKLY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BE ON A
DECREASING TREND /THOUGH SOME REMAINING LLVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP IN
SOME SCT/BKN LOW LVL CLOUDS/ AND POPS TO COME TO AN END. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

THE MIDDLE HALF OF THE CONUS FEATURES A BUILDING RIDGE WITH WEAK AND
MOBILE TROFS ON EACH COAST. THE EAST COAST TROF IS CLEARING THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH PCPN ENDING FOR ERN KY. HOWEVER THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NW FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL DROP
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THRU ERN KY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOOK FOR
SAT TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB FROM HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S ON TUE TO THE UPPER 80S ON WED WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN
TOPPING OUT AROUND 90. LOW HUMIDITY ON WED WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX
IN CHECK BUT READINGS COULD STILL RISE TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH RAIN AND RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS TO THE
LOWER 80S ON THU/FRI BUT THE DRY WEATHER ON SAT WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
HIGHS PEAK IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013

STRONG LOW SITTING OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME IS MAKING FOR A VERY
ACTIVE TAF PERIOD. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AN AREA OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
TN AND CENTRAL KY...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NNE. EASTERN
KY HAS SEEN SEVERAL ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOP AS WELL...PRODUCING SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...CHANCES FOR MORE
SCATTERED/WIDESPREAD TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. HOWEVER IT WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHICH TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED
AND WHEN UNTIL AFTER THE CONVECTION HAS INITIATED. AS A
RESULT...TRIED TO BE A LITTLE GENERAL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
VIS/CIG DROPPING WHEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND POPS ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...TRIED TO COVER ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED TS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IN A TEMPO GROUP. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED/AMENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTION NEARBY ONCE IT DEVELOPS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...JMW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             1 NE PRIMROSE           37.61N 83.60W
06/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       LEE                KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
412 PM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S BEATTYVILLE         37.54N 83.71W
06/09/2013                   LEE                KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS KNOCKED TWO TREES DOWN. ONE TREE
            IS BLOCKING SHORT RIDGE ROAD. ALSO...NICKEL SIZE HAIL
            OCCURRED.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
420 PM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             2 WSW HAZEL GREEN       37.79N 83.45W
06/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       WOLFE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STACY FORK              37.84N 83.27W
06/09/2013                   MORGAN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE TREES KNOCKED DOWN. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60+ MPH.

&&

JCARICO

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>