River Flood Warning 3, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL YIELD
ANOTHER MESSY NIGHT WITH RAIN...FREEZING RAIN... AND SLEET POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS. LOOKING AT LATEST SURFACE OBS...DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE
THE TELLING SIGN OF WHERE WE MIGHT SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN VERSES PURE
RAIN TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THUS...ASSUMING PRECIPITATION FALLS
HARD ENOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE THESE TEMPERATURES WETBULB DOWN BELOW
FREEZING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR...CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF SLEET AS WELL. FURTHER
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A TOUCH MILDER...ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS...SUGGESTING WE WILL SEE RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE
BRINGING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY TONIGHT...GIVING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FLOODING THREAT ADDRESSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO EXIT BY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE LIKELY. AGAIN...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD REMAIN SLICK THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. THUS...HAVE LEFT THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. EVENTUALLY
THE DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN TOMORROW...BUT CLOUDS MAY PERSIST WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT
OF THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GEL ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION ALOFT FOR THE
START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE NEARLY
ENCOMPASSED BY A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY
WHILE A COMPACT AND WEAKENING CLOSED LOW SCOOTS THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WAVE HAS
BEEN POORLY HANDLED BY THE MODELS UP TO NOW WITH THE NAM SHOWING ITS
WAVE TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH...BUT FASTER THAN
THE CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE HERE. THIS WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AS THE DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH MODERATES AND
FLATTENS OUT. A WAVE WILL THEN DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND TAKE A
DIVE AT THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO KENTUCKY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
THE ECMWF AND GFS...LOOKS TO BE BREWING EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CHARGE TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
ITS ENERGY PASSING THROUGH LATER TUESDAY SENDING HEIGHTS
SUBSTANTIALLY DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FAVORED THE ECMWF AND THEREAFTER A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.

SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
MODERATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW EAST KENTUCKY TO
BEGIN DRYING OUT AND MILDER TEMPERATURES/SUNSHINE TO CLEAR ANY
LINGERING ICE DEPOSITS OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS HIGH HOLDS ITS
GROUND THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. WHAT FOLLOWS
BRIEFLY WILL BE JUST A TASTE OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR THAT IS POISED
TO ENTER THE REGION LATER IN THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND FRONT BEFORE AN ARCTIC
ONE WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR STATE LATE MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A HARSH NOSE DIVE IN TEMPERATURES/WIND
CHILLS...AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY
DESPITE ANY SUNSHINE.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT WITH RESPECT TO THE POP AND SKY
DEPICTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION SET. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF FOR
THE POPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO MADE SOME SMALL
TERRAIN BASED TWEAKS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES NEARLY EACH NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
KEEPING THE AIRPORTS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. BY THE TIME
RAIN ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANYWHERE FROM AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THE CUMBERLAND RIVER ALREADY RUNNING
HIGH...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY CREATE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER. IN ADDITION...1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF SATURATED GROUND MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. AS FAR AS THE CUMBERLAND
RIVER GOES...PINEVILLE IS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE TO FLOOD
STAGE...WITH WILLIAMSBURG AND BARBOURVILLE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH
FLOOD STAGE. STILL A CHANCE TO SEE SOME MODERATE FLOODING AT BOTH
SITES. IF WE SEE RAINFALL UP STREAM OF PINEVILLE AROUND 2
INCHES...THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO REACH FLOOD STAGE.
REGARDLESS...FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL WATER LEVELS CAN RECEDE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-104-106>109.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ084>088-110-113-
115>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...KAS
HYDROLOGY...KAS

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