Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS EVE...

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE
WEAKER DUE TO INCREASED STABILITY AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE MAINLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE 2 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED LOW LAND FLOODING.

THE TREND FOR TONIGHT IS FOR THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS SE GA
AS A WARM FRONT AND FOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME
MORE FOCUSED THERE BUT NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AS A
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING PREVAILING MVFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH
OCNL IFR...THROUGH AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
WITH IFR AND VCSH AFT 06Z THRU SUNDAY MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFT 13Z
SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE STORMS WITH OCNL IFR AND STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST DUE TO OUTFLOWS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY MORNING.
A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  81  47  63 /  90  80  20  10
SSI  62  76  49  63 /  90  70  20  10
JAX  65  83  50  66 /  80  70  20  10
SGJ  67  82  53  67 /  70  70  20  10
GNV  65  83  51  67 /  60  80  30  10
OCF  65  84  53  68 /  50  70  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

PP/ACS/AW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
538 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-242145-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
538 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...

...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER SATURATED GROUNDS MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITHIN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES OFF THE
COAST.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSTED FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MID-
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT
TO A WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1242 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

GAZ150-162>164-240515-
CHARLTON-CLINCH-ECHOLS-WARE-
1242 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WARE...
CLINCH...ECHOLS AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

AT 1242 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYDAY...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND MAYDAY...NEEDMORE...FARGO AND STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK THROUGH
115 AM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3079 8314 3086 8309 3086 8302 3088 8298
      3094 8297 3115 8223 3057 8225 3063 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 250DEG 48KT 3079 8277

SANDRIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
104 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

GAZ132-149>152-163-164-240530-
ATKINSON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-PIERCE-WARE-
104 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WARE...
PIERCE...ATKINSON...BRANTLEY...CLINCH...SOUTHERN COFFEE AND
NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS
VALID UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

AT 104 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF DU PONT TO 4 MILES WEST OF RACE POND...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND RACE POND...
HOMERVILLE...DU PONT...ARGYLE...MANOR...WINOKUR...NEEDHAM...
COGDELL...EMERSON PARK AND FORT MUDGE THROUGH 130 AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3149 8311 3157 8306 3149 8259 3147 8259
      3147 8249 3142 8248 3144 8234 3138 8204
      3136 8203 3133 8177 3074 8216 3088 8298
      3118 8298 3119 8305 3127 8304 3133 8307
      3140 8314 3147 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 194DEG 33KT 3117 8295 3103 8218

SANDRIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

GAZ164>166-240545-
CHARLTON-COASTAL CAMDEN-INLAND CAMDEN-
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 145 AM EDT...

AT 121 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TARBORO...MOVING EAST AT
55 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
HOMELAND...FOLKSTON...TARBORO...KINGSLAND...WAVERLY...COLESBURG...
WOODBINE...HARRIETTS BLUFF...DOVER BLUFF AND HIGH POINT THROUGH 145
AM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3073 8145 3080 8188 3083 8190 3082 8196
      3084 8212 3106 8198 3105 8194 3110 8191
      3110 8185 3117 8177 3111 8163 3113 8156
      3109 8157 3103 8149 3103 8145 3098 8147
      3096 8144 3098 8142 3098 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 248DEG 48KT 3094 8183

SANDRIK