Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...

.CURRENTLY...
RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS PROPAGATING NEWD OVER SE GA AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL
LIFT COURTESY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. SFC LOW
NOTED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE MOVING ENEWD THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE SE STATES.

.TODAY...FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED A
PREFRONTAL QUASI-SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY COMPARED TO
PAST PREFRONTAL EVENTS WHERE LITTLE SEVERE WX WAS REALIZED. MUCAPE
VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND 800-1200 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE. STRONG 850 MB WINDS A SOLID 40-50 KT FROM THE SW WILL HELP
SUSTAIN RATHER HIGH 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 350-600 EARLY THIS
MORNING. THUS...BOTH A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT EXISTS WITH
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SPC HAS CONTINUED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. SOME QUESTION THOUGH HOW WELL A SQUALL LINE STAYS
TOGETHER AS LLVL WINDS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER WINDS. TIME
FRAME FOR THIS PREFRONTAL PRECIP IS FROM SUNRISE TO ABOUT 18Z ACROSS
NRN 2/3RDS OF ZONES...THEN SE PART FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO OCALA
17Z-21Z. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AROUND 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS
WILL SHOOT UP TO NEAR 80 AND LOWER 80S GIVEN THE STRONG SWLY WINDS
IN THE LOW LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND SWLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH
HAS PROMPTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WINDS MAY BE SUSTAINED 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 40 MPH OVER SE
ZONES SO WIND ADVY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST SE ZONES. ADVISORIES ARE
SET TO END AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSING SEWD OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE.
W-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES AND HAVE PREFERRED WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS MAINLY DUE TO WIND FACTOR. CLEARING
SKIES FOR MOST COUNTIES THOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLD STORM ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN
WHAT APPEARS TO MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS ON NEED TO CONTINUE A
LOW POP OVER SE GA ZONES SINCE ITS CONCEIVABLE AN ISOLD STORM COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG/SEVERE ALONG THE FRONT.

MON THROUGH TUE...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NW WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS. WINDY-VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MON AND LAKE WIND ADVY IS WARRANTED BUT MAY EVEN NEED WIND
ADVY OVER N ZONES. WIND GUSTS OF ABOUT 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TUE
WINDS NOT AS HIGH BUT SUSTAINED W-NW 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER
LAKE WIND ADVY LIKELY. HIGHS MON AND TUE ONLY IN THE 60S BUT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. TUE NIGHT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S MOST AREAS BUT A FREEZE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME...BUT PATCHY FROST INLAND AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT. SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION WED AND THU WHILE
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THU-THU NIGHT AND GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION BUT AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY FOR PRECIP. ON FRI...GFS SHOWS  A
SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH A SHORT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO INCLUDE
ANY POPS ON FRI. POPS MAY INCREASE LATE FRI THROUGH SAT AS NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW BUT WILL CONFINE LOW POPS TO
SE GA. FOR MOST PART USED MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY...BUT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A FACTOR THIS MORNING
DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 KNOTS JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. STRONGER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER TONIGHT BEHIND
A COLD FRONT AND A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ZONES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3
TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE AND TO AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  46  62  36 /  80  10  10   0
SSI  76  50  62  40 /  80  10  10   0
JAX  83  49  65  36 /  70  10  10   0
SGJ  82  52  65  42 /  70  10  10   0
GNV  82  49  66  36 /  70  10  10   0
OCF  84  52  68  37 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     GILCHRIST-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-UNION.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

SHASHY/SHULER/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
438 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-250930-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
438 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...

...LAKE WIND AND WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY...

...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SEMI-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE FROM THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
OFF THE COAST.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH. ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT EARLY
IN THE WEEK.

OVER LAND AREAS...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

FLZ023>025-GAZ150-164-241415-
BAKER-CHARLTON-DUVAL-NASSAU-WARE-
930 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARE...EASTERN BAKER...SOUTHERN CHARLTON...WESTERN DUVAL AND WESTERN
NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL
1015 AM EDT...

AT 930 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAYLOR...MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
TAYLOR...GLEN SAINT MARY...MACCLENNY...BRYCEVILLE...BALDWIN...ST.
GEORGE AND WHITEHOUSE AIR FIELD THROUGH 1015 AM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3080 8203 3030 8178 3014 8222 3058 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 249DEG 52KT 3027 8245

NELSON

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