Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH HEATING WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
HEATING SO EAST COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE COAST. EXPECT
LIKELY POPS SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY EVENING. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY FROM REACHING
ITS POTENTIAL SO EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. LAPS
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS CAPES AROUND 2000+ J/KG OVER INTERIOR SE GA
AT 16Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SO WOULD EXPECT
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH SHORT WAVE DAMPENING OUT
AND MOVING TO THE EAST COAST AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

.SHORT TERM...TUE THRU WED NGT...AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN US/WESTERN ATLANTIC THRU WED...TRAPPED UPPER LOW OVER
GULF COAST STATES MOVES VERY LITTLE...WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING
OVER OUR AREA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER CAROLINAS/GEORGIA...SETTING UP
INCREASING ERLY FLOW. THIS FAVORS MORE INTERIOR CONVERGENCE OF SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT YIELDING GREATER INSTABILITY.
END RESULT IS GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...THU THRU MON...WEAK UPR LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD OVER OUR AREA BY A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH UPPER LOWS OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. EXPECT CONTINUATION OF AFTN/EVNG SEA-BREEZE RELATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GNV SHOULD BE
AFFECT MAINLY 18Z-22Z AND EAST COAST TAFS GENERALLY 19Z-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL AROUND 15 KNOTS AT BUOY 41012
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT. SEAS HAVE DECREASED TO 4 FEET.
WILL LIKELY DROP SCEC HEADLINE AS DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WED THRU WEEKEND...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI-SUN...MAY APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS WED
NGT/THU.

RIP CURRENTS:MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AS EASTERLY SWELLS PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  83  61  80 /  60  40  40  20
SSI  64  77  64  77 /  70  40  40  20
JAX  61  83  62  81 /  60  60  60  40
SGJ  65  80  65  78 /  60  50  40  30
GNV  60  84  61  83 /  60  60  60  60
OCF  61  85  62  83 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/ZIBURA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1055 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-300915-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1055 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES DUE
TO EASTERLY SWELLS. FOR MAXIMUM SAFETY...CHECK WITH LIFEGUARDS OR
BEACH PATROL BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY BUT SLIGHTLY
LOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG AREA BEACHES
ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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