Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH HEATING WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
HEATING SO EAST COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD REMAIN AT THE COAST. EXPECT
LIKELY POPS SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY EVENING. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY FROM REACHING
ITS POTENTIAL SO EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. LAPS
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS CAPES AROUND 2000+ J/KG OVER INTERIOR SE GA
AT 16Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SO WOULD EXPECT
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH SHORT WAVE DAMPENING OUT
AND MOVING TO THE EAST COAST AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

.SHORT TERM...TUE THRU WED NGT...AS A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN US/WESTERN ATLANTIC THRU WED...TRAPPED UPPER LOW OVER
GULF COAST STATES MOVES VERY LITTLE...WITH TROUGHINESS EXTENDING
OVER OUR AREA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER CAROLINAS/GEORGIA...SETTING UP
INCREASING ERLY FLOW. THIS FAVORS MORE INTERIOR CONVERGENCE OF SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT YIELDING GREATER INSTABILITY.
END RESULT IS GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...THU THRU MON...WEAK UPR LOW OVER GULF COAST STATES IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD OVER OUR AREA BY A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRI. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH UPPER LOWS OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. EXPECT CONTINUATION OF AFTN/EVNG SEA-BREEZE RELATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THRU THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY. SHRA/TSRA WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GNV SHOULD BE
AFFECT MAINLY 18Z-22Z AND EAST COAST TAFS GENERALLY 19Z-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL AROUND 15 KNOTS AT BUOY 41012
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT. SEAS HAVE DECREASED TO 4 FEET.
WILL LIKELY DROP SCEC HEADLINE AS DECREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
BY MIDWEEK...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WED THRU WEEKEND...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI-SUN...MAY APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS WED
NGT/THU.

RIP CURRENTS:MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY AS EASTERLY SWELLS PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  83  61  80 /  60  40  40  20
SSI  64  77  64  77 /  70  40  40  20
JAX  61  83  62  81 /  60  60  60  40
SGJ  65  80  65  78 /  60  50  40  30
GNV  60  84  61  83 /  60  60  60  60
OCF  61  85  62  83 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/ZIBURA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1055 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-300915-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1055 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES DUE
TO EASTERLY SWELLS. FOR MAXIMUM SAFETY...CHECK WITH LIFEGUARDS OR
BEACH PATROL BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY BUT SLIGHTLY
LOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ALONG AREA BEACHES
ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
513 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

FLZ023-024-GAZ150-164-165-292200-
BAKER-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-NASSAU-WARE-
513 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARE...NORTHERN BAKER...CHARLTON...WESTERN CAMDEN AND NORTHWESTERN
NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 514 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. GEORGE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK...ST. GEORGE...HOMELAND...
FOLKSTON...KINGS FERRY...HILLIARD AND CALLAHAN THROUGH 600 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3100 8179 3058 8171 3039 8222 3084 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 261DEG 18KT 3076 8225 3041 8214

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
519 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

GAZ132>135-292200-
APPLING-BACON-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
519 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFF DAVIS...
NORTHERN APPLING...NORTHWESTERN BACON AND CENTRAL COFFEE COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 519 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES WEST OF WEST GREEN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WEST GREEN...BROXTON...SNIPESVILLE...DENTON...HAZLEHURST...PLANT
HATCH...PINE GROVE...GRAHAM AND BAXLEY THROUGH 600 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3197 8242 3194 8233 3194 8228 3191 8222
      3191 8213 3189 8212 3190 8210 3187 8210
      3183 8207 3151 8284 3164 8294 3193 8263
      3196 8257 3195 8250 3198 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 233DEG 24KT 3164 8277

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
524 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

FLZ024-GAZ166-292200-
COASTAL CAMDEN-NASSAU-
524 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CAMDEN AND EASTERN NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 524 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. MARYS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND FERNANDINA BEACH...ST. MARYS...KINGS BAY BASE...
DUNGENESS AND CUMBERLAND ISLAND THROUGH 600 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS
A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3062 8143 3057 8153 3073 8163 3085 8142
      3084 8142 3077 8145 3072 8144 3070 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 239DEG 10KT 3070 8149

HESS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>