Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF AN MCS FROM TEXAS IS TRAVELING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IS SLOWLY WASHING OUT AS IT TRAVELS
EASTWARD INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED FROM OXFORD TO GREENWOOD TO
BASTROP CURRENTLY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME KIND OF A POST-FRONTAL
COMPLEX FORMING IN THE AREA. THIS IS OF INTEREST AS MOST OF THE
MODELS SHOW THIS COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS EVENING AND
INTO AND ACROSS MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
VARIATION IN THE MODELS AS TO THE FUTURE PATH THIS COMPLEX WILL
TRAVEL. WE ARE FAVORING THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THIS COMPLEX MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTH OF I-20 VERSUS THE GFS WHICH
SHOWS IT MOVING NORTH OF I-20. OVERNIGHT...THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS STILL BEING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS TOO
AS THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN THIS WEEK AND THE GROUND
REMAINS MOIST IN MOST AREAS. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE PRETTY PATCHY AND WILL FORM IN THE AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN TODAY.

TOMORROW...THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
AND INTO ALABAMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD HAVE MOVED SOUTH AND COMPLETELY OUT OUR CWA BY 0Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING IN SOME MUCH DRIER AIR AND A DAY OF RELIEF FROM
STORMS ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST. /10/

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COME SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF OUR
CWA NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH A 1015MB HIGH JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWS BELOW AN INCH NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 AND BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WL STILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH A
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE OVER OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE
OPS GFS GENERATED SOME QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON BUT THE
SREF AND MODEL CONSENSUS WAS DRY SO HAVE CUT MAV POPS IN THE SOUTH
FOR SATURDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AND RETURN
FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF INTO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND
DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. THIS WL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WELL. BY AFTERNOON A FEW
STORMS UP STREAM MAY DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHILE SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. THE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WL WAIN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
DURING THE EVENING BUT THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND SPREAD ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE CLOSED
LOW AND SHIFTS THE TROUGH EAST MONDAY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THOUGH THAT
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. GREATEST POPS MONDAY WL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WL INHIBIT CONVECTION
FOR THE MOST PART BUT LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WL IMPACT AREAS E OF I-55 THRU THE EARLY EVENING
HRS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVTIY PSBL THRU THE OVRNGT S OF
I-20 AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CONDS INVOF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. SFC WINDS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WL REMAIN LGT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. MVFR CIG
ARE QUITE PSBL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT MOST LOCALES BEFORE VFR
CONDS RETURN 14-16Z. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  84  62  88 /  61  33  10  12
MERIDIAN      68  83  60  88 /  60  48  11  15
VICKSBURG     68  85  62  90 /  63  22   9  10
HATTIESBURG   69  86  64  90 /  61  44  12  26
NATCHEZ       68  85  63  89 /  60  22   9  14
GREENVILLE    68  83  64  89 /  48  22   8   8
GREENWOOD     66  82  60  88 /  46  29   9   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
238 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-071945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
238 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A FRONT
INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-071945-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
238 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55...AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
06/06/2013                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED.

&&

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PELAHATCHIE             32.32N 89.80W
06/06/2013                   RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PELAHATCHIE PD REPORTS SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED IN THE
            CITY. THREE STREETS ARE CLOSED. WATER REPORTED COMING UP
            INTO ONE HOME.

&&

19