Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

.UPDATE...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AFFECTING MANY CENTRAL MS
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS COMPLEX WAS GENERALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN MANY HI RESOLUTION WRF MODELS HAD
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS IMPORTANT CONSIDERING CONSENSUS OUTPUT FROM
THESE MODELS FORECASTS ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER COMING THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. BUT STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
ESSENTIALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE A GOOD DEAL OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THEREFORE IT IS NOT A VERY RIPE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT.

RECENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
THERE HAVE BEEN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING NEAR THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ACTUAL FRONTS. WESTERN
IMPORT OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE ARKLATEX IS HELPING TO FEED
THESE STORMS WHILE WINDS GENERALLY TRY TO PUSH ACTIVITY TOWARD OUR
REGION. BUT...AS MENTIONED...THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER EAST IS
PRESENTLY SOMEWHAT HOSTILE TO THUNDER MAINTENANCE AND THUS THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DWINDLING BEFORE ENTERING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. MOST RECENT NAM AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS ACTIVITY
FESTERING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH I CAN STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A SMALL
COMPLEX HEADED WELL INTO THE REGION VERY LATE IF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER AGGREGATES.

MAIN FORECAST UPDATES WERE TO CUT BACK POPS IN ALMOST ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING AND PUT THE MAIN FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN MORE ON
WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS IS BEING TAPPED BY A MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS BEING MAINTAINED BY OUTFLOW FROM AR
INTO NWRN MS IN AND AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE YIELDING ~3000 J/KG MIXED LAYER
CAPE. THIS HAS LED TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY.
STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL SHEAR AND
THIS IS ALLOWING A COLD POOL TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND
IGNITE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING.
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND AT LEAST SEMI-
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT EARLY THURS MORNING...BUT SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
EXPLICITLY INDICATES THAT A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE FORECAST AND
CONTINUED THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE GRAPHICS HWO
FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. /EC/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEEKEND
EXPECTED AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S LOOK PROBABLE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING PRECIP CHANCES A TOUCH TRICKY.

OVERALL PATTERN WILL MIGRATE FROM A MODEST S/WV TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING AXIS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO A
SUBTLE S/WV NW FLOW TROUGHING REGIME OVER THE WEEKEND TO A WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AS A MODESTLY PROGGED 593DM RIDGE SETS
UP OVER S-CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFTS OVER THE REGION
BY MID WEEK. 05/00Z GFS VS. 04/12Z EC SHOWED STRONGER MOMENTUM TO
WEEKEND BOUNDARY GETTING FARTHER SOUTH NEAR I-10 CORRIDOR AND
SLIDING A H7 SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE UNDER THE DEVELOPING H5 S-CNTRL
PLAINS RIDGE INDICATING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE EC HAS BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THE
RIDGE, LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR POTENTIAL NW FLOW MCS/S WITH
SEVERAL APPARENT INDICATIONS IN QPF MASS FIELDS. YET, HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS 00Z GFS GIVEN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN H7 AND H5 ENSEMBLE
MEAN/PERTURBATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS. LATEST 00Z EC COMING IN HAS
SHIFTED H5 RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST, HELPING INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN
HOTTER/DRIER FORECAST. THIS TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL NW SURPRISES IF RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BUILD IN.

SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG BUT THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE EXITING EAST BEFORE
BEST AFTN DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PUSHED
FARTHER SOUTH SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT AFTN FOR FAR
SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY FLARES UP UNDER PREVAILING NW
FLOW. TEMPS SAT MRNG WILL MORE COMFORTABLE AS OF LATE WITH READINGS
DOWN IN THE LOW 60S. MOISTURE WILL REBOUND QUICKLY SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A HINT OF
AN EMBEDDED SMALLER WAVE IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A TOUCH FOR W/NW AREAS IN PROXIMITY TO WAVE WHILE
LEAVING INTACT POPS FOR SOUTH AREAS AS SEA-BREEZE ACTION COMMENCES
AGAIN.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START TO FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY IN THE MID
90S AS THE H7-5 RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE ARKLAMISS.
TEMPERED TEMPS 1-2F DOWN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RIDGE NOT BUILDING IN
AS FAST AS GFS ADVERTISED VS. EC AND INCREASED POPS BY 5% TO CARRY
SOME POTENTIAL FOR NW CONVECTION DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UNCAPPED,
DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT, AND SUBTLE S/WV TROUGHING TRAIN SETS UP
ALONG A NW/SE AXIS NEARBY. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW VISBIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AERODROME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS WELL ALOFT WILL LIKELY
KEEP WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM OCCURRING THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAZARDS WILL BE
HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH CHANCES OF STORMS
TOMORROW RUNNING RATHER HIGH AT MOST SITES. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  87  69  87 /  30  68  58  23
MERIDIAN      67  89  69  88 /  18  60  67  39
VICKSBURG     71  88  67  87 /  45  73  47  16
HATTIESBURG   69  90  71  90 /  39  46  49  38
NATCHEZ       70  87  69  87 /  41  63  44  13
GREENVILLE    72  87  67  85 /  63  62  33  11
GREENWOOD     71  86  67  85 /  47  65  42  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/EC/ALLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-034-040-041-047-053-
059-060-070230-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
WASHINGTON-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
921 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ANY STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY RISKS
WILL BE 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TOMORROW.

MSZ019-025>033-035>039-042>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-
070230-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
921 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

50

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LAZ016-MSZ040-047-060510-
WARREN MS-ISSAQUENA MS-MADISON LA-
1127 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1127 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHWEST OF VICKSBURG...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VICKSBURG AT 1126 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...AND
EAST CENTRAL MADISON PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3253 9101 3248 9062 3235 9065 3235 9066
      3235 9069 3234 9070 3230 9070 3225 9072
      3235 9106
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 284DEG 10KT 3242 9093

BYB

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