Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE LINE OF STORMS IS JUST
ABOUT TO ENTER THE NW PART OF THE CWA AND EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS
TO STEADILY PUSH E/SE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE
SHOWING A DECREASING TREND. DRIVING THIS LINE IS A COMPACT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN OK AND A LARGE COMPOSITE COLD
POOL (OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) WHICH HAS CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE
OVER NE TX/NW LA/SW AR. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME BETTER BALANCED WITH THE CONVECTION AND THIS
SHOULD PROVE TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE IT MAY RUN OUT OF STEAM. INSTABILITY IS NOT
GREAT (1500 J/KG MLCAPE)...BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS LOOK TO SUPPORT SVR
STORMS THIS EVENING AND A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE LINE COULD BE WITHIN THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 1130 PM AND 130 AM...THEN DIMINISHING EAST OF THAT
AFTER 1-2 AM.

AS FOR HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. THE EARLIER THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
HAS DECREASED DUE TO 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED TO THE NE AND THE
LINEAR COMPLEX PROPAGATING TO THE E/SE. A SVR TS WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE FOR SOME OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...TIMING THE RESTRICTIONS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE THE
FOCUS TONIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11-14Z WED
MORNING. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WED
DUE TO WHAT IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE HAPPEN FROM THE STORM COMPLEX
TONIGHT...THUS WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  85  61  90 /  79  48   9   6
MERIDIAN      65  85  60  90 /  41  43  22   5
VICKSBURG     70  86  59  89 / 100  43   5   5
HATTIESBURG   68  87  67  90 /  31  40  17  10
NATCHEZ       70  86  64  88 /  95  49  10  15
GREENVILLE    68  85  61  88 / 100  34   3   3
GREENWOOD     69  84  58  87 / 100  43   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-
222000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE 7 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

LAZ024>026-MSZ026>033-036>038-042>045-047>050-053-054-059>061-
222000-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-
CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
PRIMARILY IN THE 9 PM TO 2 AM TIME FRAME. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND THIS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

STRONG STORMS MAY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS
WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT.

MSZ039-046-051-052-055>058-062>066-072>074-222000-
NOXUBEE-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1043 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INVERNESS               33.35N 90.59W
05/21/2013                   SUNFLOWER          MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH AND POSSIBLE
            POWERLINES DOWN DUE TO MULTIPLE OUTAGES IN THE AREA.
            REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DCOX