Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LARGE LINE OF STORMS IS JUST
ABOUT TO ENTER THE NW PART OF THE CWA AND EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS
TO STEADILY PUSH E/SE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE
SHOWING A DECREASING TREND. DRIVING THIS LINE IS A COMPACT UPPER
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN OK AND A LARGE COMPOSITE COLD
POOL (OUTFLOW BOUNDARY) WHICH HAS CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF WIND DAMAGE
OVER NE TX/NW LA/SW AR. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME BETTER BALANCED WITH THE CONVECTION AND THIS
SHOULD PROVE TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE IT MAY RUN OUT OF STEAM. INSTABILITY IS NOT
GREAT (1500 J/KG MLCAPE)...BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS LOOK TO SUPPORT SVR
STORMS THIS EVENING AND A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR
TIMING...LOOKS LIKE THE LINE COULD BE WITHIN THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 1130 PM AND 130 AM...THEN DIMINISHING EAST OF THAT
AFTER 1-2 AM.

AS FOR HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH A
SMALL THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. THE EARLIER THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
HAS DECREASED DUE TO 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED TO THE NE AND THE
LINEAR COMPLEX PROPAGATING TO THE E/SE. A SVR TS WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE FOR SOME OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...TIMING THE RESTRICTIONS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE THE
FOCUS TONIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11-14Z WED
MORNING. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WED
DUE TO WHAT IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE HAPPEN FROM THE STORM COMPLEX
TONIGHT...THUS WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP RISK FOR THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  85  61  90 /  79  48   9   6
MERIDIAN      65  85  60  90 /  41  43  22   5
VICKSBURG     70  86  59  89 / 100  43   5   5
HATTIESBURG   68  87  67  90 /  31  40  17  10
NATCHEZ       70  86  64  88 /  95  49  10  15
GREENVILLE    68  85  61  88 / 100  34   3   3
GREENWOOD     69  84  58  87 / 100  43   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-
222000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE 7 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

LAZ024>026-MSZ026>033-036>038-042>045-047>050-053-054-059>061-
222000-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-
CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
PRIMARILY IN THE 9 PM TO 2 AM TIME FRAME. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND THIS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

STRONG STORMS MAY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS
WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT.

MSZ039-046-051-052-055>058-062>066-072>074-222000-
NOXUBEE-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

EC

MSZ019-025>027-220120-
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...STRONG STORM CROSSING NORTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF SUNNYSIDE AT 750 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LEFLORE AND WESTERN GRENADA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3379 8975 3355 9045 3372 9054 3382 9031
      3382 9020 3379 9017 3376 9019 3374 9030
      3371 9030 3370 9027 3374 9024 3373 9014
      3382 9013 3383 8994 3390 8992 3390 8981
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 243DEG 22KT 3366 9043

EEC

MSZ018-034-220240-
WASHINGTON MS-BOLIVAR MS-
839 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
839 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS ABOUT READY TO GET EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ROSEDALE TO 48 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE AT 839 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN BOLIVAR AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3362 9066 3361 9077 3351 9076 3336 9093
      3333 9114 3345 9106 3339 9112 3338 9114
      3341 9121 3349 9115 3344 9123 3357 9123
      3360 9114 3369 9123 3367 9104 3377 9115
      3378 9099 3397 9110 3407 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 260DEG 41KT 3397 9103 3329 9181

BYB

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