River Flood Warning 112, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTH UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN US
WITH A AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WAS PUSHING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH WAS
ASSOCIATED A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. AN MCS WAS NOTED
FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. VERY STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. A WAKE LOW DEVELOPED ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
ALONG WITH SOME PRESSURE FALLS.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE MCS TO AFFECT REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (TWO TO THREE INCHES
WITH LOCALLY 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE) WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING RISK
ISSUES IS ON TRACK UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF...LOCAL
AND NATIONAL WRF MODELS BRING THE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY RISK OF 50-60 MPH WINDS AND 1 OR 2
TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE HIGHER
CURRENT POPS AS MAV POPS LOOKED A LITTLE LOW IN THE SOUTH. WILL LOWER
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...THUS KEPT WITH
MAV GUIDANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER PLAINS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA. WILL KEEP
THE BEST CONVECTIVE POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. STUCK
WITH MAV POPS AND TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. GOOD DRYING WILL PUNCH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE RAINS
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE ARKLAMISS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WENT WITH
GMOS POPS FOR SATURDAY AND MAV POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPS
WENT WITH MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S./17/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER AND POSSIBLY MID 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS...AND THIS IS ABOUT 10-15 DEG F BELOW CLIMATE NORMAL.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE LONGER RANGE FOR A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS BY NEXT
THURSDAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN MODEL FORECASTS FOR WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES GOING IN THE
FORECAST. A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MID-LATE WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE LAST 90 DEG F
READING AT THE JACKSON NWS OFFICE WAS SEPT 7TH...AND IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK BEFORE THE FIRST 90+ DEG F IS
REACHED FOR 2013. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND TSTMS MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON
TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS. CLOUD DECKS WILL BE BKN-OVC
2500-4000 FT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.
THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AS VFR CONDITIONS
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  62  80  54 /  90  66  39  11
MERIDIAN      80  62  82  53 /  90  77  48  12
VICKSBURG     82  61  79  51 /  82  53  31   8
HATTIESBURG   84  63  83  57 /  94  54  55  20
NATCHEZ       82  61  80  55 /  75  53  38  13
GREENVILLE    82  62  77  53 /  67  39  18   8
GREENWOOD     81  61  77  52 /  75  48  23   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>037-040>044-047>051-053>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

17/EC/

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