Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
858 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING FOR THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES
FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING RISK OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO GENERALLY INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES
AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE BACK TO OUR WEST OVER FAR EASTERN TX. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT IS HELPING DRIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ALSO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LA/AR WITH DEVELOPMENT JUST ON
OUR DOORSTEP THIS EVENING. THE POOL OF QUALITY MOISTURE JUST TO OUR
W AND S ALONG WITH AN OBSERVED TREND FOR TRAINING STORMS IN THE
APPROACHING COMPLEX IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR WRN
AND SRN ZONES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL BUT MAY BE
EXTENDED FARTHER TO THE E AND NE DURING THE NEXT SHIFT.

ANTICIPATING THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TRANSITION
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST...POSSIBLY
SEVERE...CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE INTO SE AR...NE LA AND WRN MS
THIS EVENING...PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE POOLING NWD ACROSS LA THIS
EVENING IT WOULD BE LITTLE SURPRISE IF THE SVR WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER WRN LA WERE TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER EWD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE SUPPORTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND STRONG JET FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE LATEST MODELS SHOW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION COMING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE FORM OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THIS COMBINED
WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING THE
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. AROUND TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL AFFECT MOIST SOILS AND SOME HIGH RIVER
LEVEL CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. AS FOR GUIDANCE...CUT TEMPS TONIGHT
FOR SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE COLD POOL MOVING IN BEHIND THE
COMPLEX.

MUCH ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
AND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...BUT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
MAY HAVE MORE TO SAY WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ULTIMATELY FOCUSES
ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP LAYER FLOW
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. /27/EC/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY MORNING WILL GET BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT MANY
LOCATIONS...AND THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW CLIMATE NORMAL. THERE
ARE SIGNALS IN THE LONGER RANGE GLOBAL MODELS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS BY NEXT THURSDAY...AND
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ARE INDICATED IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND TSTMS
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND N OF I-20 THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH STORMS AND
MVFR...LCL IFR...CONDITIONS SPREADING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS. CLOUD DECKS WILL BE BKN-OVC 2500-4000 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-040>044-047>051-053>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

BB/03/27/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
802 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-
040>044-047>051-053>066-072>074-110115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
802 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR
TWO.

IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH WET SOIL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AND SWOLLEN CREEKS AND STREAMS...RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS MAY
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AT SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY.

MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-052-110045-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-LAUDERDALE-
740 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES MAY RESULT IN
LOCAL FLOODING...INCLUDING PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY ALSO SEE RISES IN WATER LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03/28

MSZ043-048-049-100715-
RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-
130 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
JACKSON METROPOLITAN AREA...

A SHORT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL AND 45 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED FROM 9 MILES NORTH
OF ANNANDALE TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON AT 129 AM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN HINDS...MADISON AND NORTHERN RANKIN COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3260 8978 3243 8975 3225 9029 3264 9031
      3267 9023 3266 9020 3270 9013 3270 9010
      3275 9004 3280 9002 3282 8999 3289 8977
      3289 8973 3264 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 248DEG 31KT 3265 9020 3237 9019

BYB

MSZ053-054-059-062-100715-
LINCOLN MS-JEFFERSON MS-COPIAH MS-CLAIBORNE MS-
133 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
133 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY...

A SHORT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED FROM ALCORN
TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCNAIR AT 132 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CLAIBORNE...WESTERN COPIAH...JEFFERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3161 9064 3161 9108 3187 9124 3192 9118
      3194 9119 3207 9072 3205 9071 3205 9056
      3165 9033 3157 9063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 252DEG 31KT 3187 9112 3158 9095

BYB

LAZ024-026-100740-
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
156 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
156 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LARTO AT
156 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CATAHOULA AND CENTRAL CONCORDIA PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3136 9201 3156 9151 3153 9149 3152 9152
      3145 9152 3138 9146 3136 9148 3136 9151
      3143 9155 3141 9158 3130 9151 3122 9180
      3126 9183 3129 9193 3122 9192 3123 9200
      3128 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 248DEG 30KT 3127 9199

BYB

MSZ060-100835-
ADAMS MS-
303 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
303 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIBLEY AT 304 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3136 9150 3136 9148 3138 9146 3143 9150
      3159 9116 3135 9116 3134 9118 3137 9122
      3135 9131 3131 9142 3131 9146 3127 9148
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 247DEG 30KT 3136 9142

CME

MSZ059>061-100930-
ADAMS MS-JEFFERSON MS-FRANKLIN MS-
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED
5 MILES NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON AT 330 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

RADAR SUGGESTS AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINS NEAR ONE INCH MAY
OCCUR THROUGH 530 AM. IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS AND SHOWS IT
MAY LAST FOR A LONGER PERIOD...THEN A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN FRANKLIN...CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3184 9117 3182 9092 3174 9080 3137 9086
      3137 9134 3164 9131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 236DEG 25KT 3147 9120

CME

MSZ061-100910-
FRANKLIN MS-
342 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
342 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF GARDEN CITY AT 342 AM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN FRANKLIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3148 9114 3161 9075 3135 9074 3134 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 249DEG 35KT 3143 9103

CME