Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
723 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

CLUSTER OF TSTMS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF OVER SE MI SHOULD STAY TO
THE NE OF OUR CWA. A SECOND PRE-FRONTAL TROF APPEARS TO BE MOVG EAST
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM... BUT CAPE HAS BEEN DECREASING AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE SO DOUBTFUL IF TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG IT. TSTMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE CDFNT FROM NRN LWR MI SW ACROSS SRN
WI INTO ERN IA AND CAPE INCREASING OVER NRN IL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
INTO A LINE AND CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
REASONABLE BUT MODELS APPEAR A BIT FAST ON EVOLUTION. WILL UPDATE
HOURLY WX GRIDS SOON TO DELAY LIKELY POPS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE
CWA UNTIL ABOUT 03Z... WITH CONTINUATION OF EARLIER TREND OF
INCRSG THE POPS SEWD WITH A LINE EXPECTED TO DVLP OVERNIGHT.

HEAT/WIND ON DOWNWARD TREND AS EXPECTED AND NPW/MWW/CFW HEADLINES
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

CONTINUING TO MONITOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION YIELDING ML CAPES AA 2500 J/KG. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE CONVECTION FIRING ALONG PRUE FRONTAL TR OF CURRENTLY
FROM CENTRAL IOWA NORTHEAST TO GREEN BAY AND UPPER MI AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG COLD
FRONT W/ A POTENT UPPER TR OF WITH SWING SOUTHEAST AND MERGE WITH
THIS PRUE FRONT TR OF/WIND SHIFT...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND
SUBSEQUENT SOLUTIONS. ANY STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE AS BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP
CHANCES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KTS AND
DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...TIMING IS BECOMING UNFAVORABLE
WITH THE COINCIDENCE OF BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AS LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE TIME THE
BEST FORCING/SHEAR ARRIVES THIS EVENING. CONTINUED TO TREND POPS
INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH 00Z. RIGHT NOW...BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE 00Z-04Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...BUT ONLY CONDITIONAL UPON ADEQUATE FORCING/SHEAR
COINCIDING WITH WANING...ALBEIT APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. MAIN
THREATS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...INCREASING MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DC APE
VALUES FROM 800-1200.

EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH STABILIZING
CONDITIONS. REFLECTED THIS GRADUAL LOWERING TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS MODESTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES THE WEAKENING H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US AND AMPLIFYING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

WESTERLY FLOW WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE BROAD TR OF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN THIRD OF THE US
AND SHUNT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH AND EAST. WHILE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LESSENED IN THE EXTENDED...CANNOT RULE OUT IS OLD TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH EACH TR OF/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS PROBLEMATIC. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTIONS DO NOT AFFORD ANY CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING THE
FORMATION/DURATION/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THIS FAR OUT.

THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES. BY MID-WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME.

COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

ONLY EXPECT TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND TWEAKS TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

MAIN CHANGE TO TAFS WAS TO PUSH BACK TS UNTIL 03-06Z AT SBN AND TO
05Z-08Z AT FWA AS BEST CHANCE FOR TS AT THE TERMINALS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LINE DEVELOPING FROM NRN LOWER MI-ERN IA ATTM.
FURTHER EAST DEVELOPMENT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVE SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND AMD PSBL. AS FRONTAL TROF SAGS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
459 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-200900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
459 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 /359 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NPWIWX FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-200900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
459 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS.

HAZARDOUS WIND GUSTS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

OHZ001-002-004-005-200130-
DEFIANCE OH-FULTON OH-HENRY OH-WILLIAMS OH-
853 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN FULTON...SOUTHEASTERN
WILLIAMS...NORTHEASTERN DEFIANCE AND NORTHERN HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 850 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF STRYKER...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BRYAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ARCHBOLD...
  NAPOLEON...
  LIBERTY CENTER...
  RIDGEVILLE CORNERS AND OKOLONA...
  GERALD...
  GRELTON...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4133 8449 4151 8450 4155 8389 4132 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 267DEG 31KT 4142 8437

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1153 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

MIZ080-081-200445-
BRANCH MI-HILLSDALE MI-
1153 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN BRANCH AND
NORTHERN HILLSDALE COUNTIES...

AT 1152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNION CITY...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BATTLE
CREEK...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HILLSDALE...
  LITCHFIELD...
  JONESVILLE...
  GIRARD...
  SOUTH BUTLER...
  ALLEN...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4186 8436 4207 8527 4208 8526 4208 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 284DEG 43KT 4213 8511

MARSILI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1213 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

MIZ079-080-200445-
BRANCH MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-
1213 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH AND
NORTHWESTERN BRANCH COUNTIES...

AT 1210 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLON...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
PORTAGE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  COLON...
  UNION CITY...
  MENDON...
  LEONIDAS...
  SHERWOOD...
  MATTESON LAKE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4207 8495 4190 8505 4201 8565 4208 8563
      4208 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 285DEG 35KT 4207 8550

MARSILI