Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
505 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN
IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. MORE VIGOROUS VORT MAX WILL
SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SMALLER
SCALE PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
UPSTREAM FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE COOL
FRONT TO GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILER
SOUTHEAST. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS APPROXIMATELY
SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PRONOUNCED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE POOLING AXIS
(PWATS ALONG THIS AXIS RUNNING IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE). KIWX
VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF 30-40 KNOT WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH HAS AIDED IN UPWIND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AT LEAST OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS INTO NORTHWEST OHIO FOR POSSIBLE
TRAINING EFFECTS AND SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AFTER 12Z...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH WHICH SHOULD
LESSEN UPWIND DEVELOPMENT WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT
IN COLUMN MOISTURE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE AREA WITH FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE AREA...BUT LIKELY SLOWING IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD
EJECTION OF PRIMARY ONTARIO SHORT WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS
TO POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVERRIDING SFC FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...WEAK
PERTURBATIONS APPROACHING IN NW FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF BROAD RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET SHOULD ALLOW ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF THIS
AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF IWX FORECAST AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SEVERE POTENTIAL
LOOKS QUITE MARGINAL GIVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR PROFILES
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA/LOWER MICHIGAN. SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING...MARKING A MUCH DRIER/COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD WITH A
NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONT WILL ALSO
UNDULATE OVER THE AREA...HELPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...
BLENDED THE CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF WHICH ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH EACH OTHER. THE ECMWF HAS REASONABLY RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...
AND BOTH MODELS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER OR NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDER APPEAR TO BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AND THEN
ON TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NORMAL. HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROF MAY BE COOLER THAN THE ONGOING
FCST/GRIDS INDICATE...WITH ACTUAL HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
INDIANA WHERE STRONGER FORCING PERSISTS. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING HAS OCCURRED IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MOST OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN REMAINING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WITH SFC FRONT STILL WEST OF KSBN...POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS THROUGH
ABOUT 09Z OR SO...BUT WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED HAVE
CONFINED THUNDER MENTION TO VCTS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED 08Z-11Z VCTS
MENTION AT KFWA WITH MID/UPPER FORCING BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF TERMINALS AND HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

MIZ080-081-200545-
BRANCH MI-HILLSDALE MI-
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN BRANCH AND NORTHERN
HILLSDALE COUNTIES...

AT 1255 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LITCHFIELD TO QUINCY
TO COLDWATER TO BRONSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HILLSDALE...
  QUINCY AND LITCHFIELD...
  JONESVILLE...
  READING...
  MARBLE LAKE...LAKE OF THE WOODS AND ALLEN...
  MOSCOW...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4207 8436 4191 8437 4182 8461 4187 8529
      4202 8496 4208 8490 4208 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 276DEG 34KT 4206 8478 4201 8482
          4197 8490 4188 8517

MARSILI

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
453 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

OHZ004-005-015-200930-
DEFIANCE OH-HENRY OH-PAULDING OH-
453 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD DEFIANCE...NORTHERN PAULDING
AND WESTERN HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 448 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES WEST OF DEFIANCE...OR NEAR HICKSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DEFIANCE...
  SHERWOOD...THE BEND AND NEY...
  BRUNERSBURG...
  INDEPENDENCE...JEWELL AND AYERSVILLE...
  STANDLEY...FLORIDA AND OKOLONA...
  FLORIDA...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4138 8417 4120 8419 4121 8477 4139 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 273DEG 40KT 4130 8464

MARSILI