River Flood Warning 54, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
649 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD CONVECTION HAS SLOWED ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH HAS MADE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. RAIN COOLED AIR
IN LARGER STRATIFORM/EMBEDDED CONVECTION AREA BEHIND LEADING EDGE
HAS RESULTED IN SOME SUBSTANTIAL CIN FOR LOWER BASED PARCELS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. A POTENT UPPER JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF
LOWER BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY EFFECTS OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION POSSIBLY
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
STILL EXPECTING FOCUS FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION TO REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OF GREATER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
PARTICULARLY EAST HALF...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS LOOKING TO BE
INLINE FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET STREAK WILL
PRODUCE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS WITH PRONOUNCED
THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE/HEAVY RAIN SIGNATURE SHOWING UP IN BOTH 12Z
NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. AXIS OF UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR (1.5 PWATS FROM 12Z
ILK SOUNDING) NOW RESIDES OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT ALONG WITH STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT HEFTY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. WHILE LESSER STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
NOW APPEAR LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS
SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE FLOOD
CONCERNS TONIGHT.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO AFFECT THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS FROM MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S. UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH UPPER LOW
CENTER MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCT SHRA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTHWEST WHERE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MAY
SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A POST FRONTAL TROF WITH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. KEPT A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL FROM -5C TO AROUND -9C GIVEN
LIMITED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. CUT LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA. A SHALLOW BUT SHARP RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP TO AROUND 30 MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 20S NORTHEAST WHERE RETURN
FLOW WILL BE LAST TO SET UP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES.
FAVORED THE ECMWF WHICH WAS SHOWING A CONSISTENTLY SLOWER SOLUTION
WITH THE SOUTHWEST DOME OF THE COLDER AIR STILL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AS THE LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENS OVER
THE AREA. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHS WEDNESDAY COULD BE MUCH WARMER IF
A SLOWER SOLUTION VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING PROVIDING INCREASING LARGE UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO TSRA MENTION AT KFWA THROUGH 02Z
WHERE SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS. CANNOT DISCOUNT
ISOLD THUNDER EVEN AT KSBN EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL MAY
BE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION WITH THE 00Z TAFS. GENERALLY EXPECTING
MVFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR CONDS
IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
EVENING AT KSBN...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KFWA. NO MAJOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAFS IN REGARDS TO TIMING WIND SHIFT WITH
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISE PUSH ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA MAY YIELD A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER END
WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTING POST FRONTAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO
RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AND GUSTS BACK TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-
     022>027-032>034.

MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI

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