River Flood Warning 50, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
557 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 988MB LOW OVER UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL PLENTY OF POSTFRONTAL RAIN
THOUGH...AIDED BY CONTINUED STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. MIDLEVEL EXTENSION OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND
12Z. STRONG NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED THOUGH WITH
LIMITED QPF AND SPORADIC COVERAGE. BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN OF THE
DAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
STRONG WSW WINDS TODAY BUT COVERAGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 45
MPH IS UNCERTAIN. CWA WILL BE IN A REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
DESCENT BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT BUT THE BEST PUSH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
TIME TO RAMP UP. ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING DURING
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO OCCLUDE AND FILL. NAM AND
GFS BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT XSECTIONS SHOW MIXING HEIGHTS JUST BARELY
REACHING 40 KTS OVER MOST OF OUR CWA BUT DO CLIMB INTO THE 45-50KT
RANGE OVER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH AND
THE FACT THAT UPSTREAM SITES IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS ARE ALREADY
GUSTING IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION. OTHER MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPS THAT ARE ROUGHLY 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -6C BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MID
TO UPPER 40S. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL GRADIENT WILL HELP OFFSET
CAA TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 30F. A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO THE ERN
GRTLKS/CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO
THE WRN GRTLKS... HWVR MEAN LONGWAVE BROAD TROF POSITION WILL
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL CANADA/U.S. AND A SERIES OF WK SHRTWVS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM WRN CANADA AMPLIFYING THE FLOW AND
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A RATHER STRONG UPR TROF/SFC CDFNT PASSAGE IN
OUR AREA BRINGING PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND PSBLY TSTMS EARLY/MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR AS MODELS CONT
TO HAVE SGFNT TIMING DIFFERENCE WRT THIS SYSTEM. FAVORED SLOWER
ECMWF DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE AREA NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHEST POPS TUE NGT... BUT RETAINED LOW POPS MON-MON NGT
IN DEFERRENCE TO MUCH FASTER GFS SOLUTION.

TEMPS SHOULD START THE PERIOD WELL BLO NORMAL AS A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE SNOW COVERED NRN PLAINS/UPR
MIDWEST ACROSS THE NRN GRTLKS. RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SLOW
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON-TUE BEFORE
FALLING BACK BLO NORMAL WITH A RETURN TO NW FLOW BEHIND STRONG UPR
TROF/SFC CDFNT PASSAGE TUE NGT-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN HIGH END MVFR CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
MORNING AS STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT BUILDS BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED
AND UNWORTHY OF INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCU DECK AS WELL AS STRONG WSW
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...AGD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
519 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-200930-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
519 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013 /419 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN WHERE A WIND ADVISORY FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING AND MEASURED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
OF TWO INCHES OR MORE ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-200930-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
519 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     FLOOD            1 E SILVER LAKE         41.07N  85.87W
04/19/2013                   KOSCIUSKO          IN   PUBLIC

            DEEP WATER ACROSS ROAD ON SR 14 IN A FEW PLACES

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HUNTINGTON              40.88N  85.50W
04/19/2013  M3.82 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC

            FROM 1 PM THURS TO 5 AM FRIDAY

0724 AM     FLOOD            MARION                  40.56N  85.66W
04/19/2013                   GRANT              IN   PUBLIC

            SR 18 EAST AND WESTBOUND CLOSED DOWNTOWN DUE TO
            FLOODING

0726 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW PERU              40.74N  86.10W
04/19/2013  M3.74 INCH       MIAMI              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TOTAL SINCE WEDS EVENING. MANY CREEKS OVER BANK WITH
            ROADWAYS FLOODED ACROSS COUNTY

0731 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WARREN                  40.68N  85.43W
04/19/2013  E4.00 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
804 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 AM     FLOOD            AMBOY                   40.60N  85.93W
04/19/2013                   MIAMI              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            APPROXIMATELY 8 TO 12 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ON
            HIGHWAY 19 IN AMBOY.

&&

NDM