Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
757 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
CONTINUES TO SAG TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT YET. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER ILLINOIS WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER A VORTICITY TAIL WILL
HANG BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
STRONGER 850MB FLOW EXTENDING FROM ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
MAY SERVE TO KEEP AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THOSE AREAS.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SOME CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THERE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TOO COLD OVER THE SOUTH WHERE FRONT
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES IN
THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

MODEL DATA SUGGEST FRONT WILL PRETTY MUCH HOLD ITS POSITION NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF APPROACHING PLAINS SYSTEM SHOULD SERVE TO PUSH THIS FRONT
BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD FORCING ALONG THE JET.

SHOULD BE IN THE WARN SECTOR THURSDAY. OTHER THAT
INSTABILITY...DON/T SEE ANY REAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AT THAT
TIME...OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THAT TIME.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS STRONG...ALONG
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE LAPSE RATES LOOK
RATHER POOR AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS/LIFT. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY AS WELL TO COVER ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY IN THE WAKE OF FRONT.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WARM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A LITTLE IN THOSE AREAS.
LOWS DON/T LOOK TOO BAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT THE DEPARTURE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON SATURDAY
MORNING BODE WATCHING AS FROST POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...HOWEVER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THAT TIME STILL SUGGESTS THAT WINDS BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. WILL WATCH CLOSELY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WORKWEEK...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ONCE AGAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH DURATION OF TAF PERIOD...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY WITH BRIEF DETERIORATION TO IFR
CATEGORY DURING HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS AND FOG FORMATION.
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WILL MAKE VFR CONDITIONS UNATTAINABLE FOR
MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
343 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060-061-170745-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-
343 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

HAZARDS: LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS.

TIMING: MAINLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A POTENTIALLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ062>065-067>072-170745-
MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-
343 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TIMING: MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A POTENTIALLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMF

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
732 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

INZ068-170015-
DAVIESS-
732 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM EDT...

AT 730 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PETERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WASHINGTON...
  GLENDALE FISHERY...
  MONTGOMERY...
  CANNELBURG...
  ALFORDSVILLE...
  WEST BOGGS LAKE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 8699 3850 8706 3853 8710 3851 8715
      3854 8718 3853 8723 3854 8724 3865 8725
      3866 8724 3866 8726 3876 8692 3853 8692
      3850 8692 3848 8694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 257DEG 19KT 3856 8723

RYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
752 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     HAIL             5 NNW SEYMOUR           39.03N  85.92W
04/16/2013  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
759 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             4 S WASHINGTON          38.60N  87.17W
04/16/2013  E0.70 INCH       DAVIESS            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER... LOCATION IS INTERSTATE
            69 NEAR MILE MARKER 57

&&

BHH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
804 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

INZ069-070-170030-
LAWRENCE-MARTIN-
804 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 803 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHOALS...OR 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PETERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SHOALS...
  LACY...
  ROLAND...
  INDIAN SPRINGS...
  HURON...
  WILLIAMS...
  MITCHELL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 8692 3886 8652 3869 8643 3868 8644
      3868 8667 3866 8668 3855 8668 3850 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 251DEG 36KT 3865 8687

RYAN