River Flood Warning 116, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT
THE AREA BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

DECREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS. WARM FRONT IS
STILL STALLED OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BUT COULD
START TO MOVE NORTH YET THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT FORCING COMBINED
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY COULD STILL PROMPT SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGER SCALE UPPER WAVE PROMPTING
STORMS RIGHT NOW ACROSS IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD CONTINUE IT/S
MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THUS NOT IMPACT THE CWA. RIGHT NOW
SHORT TERM MODELS AND SPC SREFS CENTER THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND 5 PM
ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT AND TRENDED
THIS WAY IN THE HOURLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO AROUND 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH LOOK GOOD BASED ON FRONTAL
POSITION AND PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY IN THE SOUTH.
WITH SB CAPE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES REACHING TO AROUND 1500 AND A
FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11000 FT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME
ISSUES WITH PULSE HAILSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...GENERATING RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST MOISTURE...LIFT...AND
INSTABILITY LIES MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER
POPS ARE CONCENTRATED FOR TONIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING THE MID 60S.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY. WITH
STRONG SW LLVL FLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MAVMOS
THAN MET...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S (N) TO LOW 80S (S). AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...OTHER THAN SOME LEFT
OVER RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM NIGHT BEFORE OR DIURNALLY CHARGED.
KEPT POPS AT CHANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHED THE REGION.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS
STRONG...ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE LAPSE
RATES LOOK RATHER POOR AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS/LIFT. 80-90 POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE AT THIS TIME...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WX FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY AS WELL TO COVER ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS FROST POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...HOWEVER THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THAT TIME STILL SUGGESTS THAT WINDS BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION AND SKIES MAY REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF INDIANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE NEXT WORKWEEK. A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT ONCE AGAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 16/15Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF PER OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR LATER
TODAY.

QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...AND THIS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THIS...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF BETTER CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND COVERAGE...WILL HAVE TO LEAVE OUT IN THE
LATER HOURS FOR VCSH. IN THE INITIAL PERIODS...WILL CARRY VCTS AND
TEMPO THUNDER FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...AT TIMES AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KT
THROUGHOUT...BECOMING QUITE STRONG LATE IN THE PERIOD AT IND...WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 30KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY UNTIL THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...NIELD/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-180800-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
358 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

HAZARDS: LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS.

TIMING: PERIODS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORM ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE A FACTOR HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
BY FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
835 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     NORTH VERNON            39.01N 85.63W
04/16/2013  M48.00 MPH       JENNINGS           IN   AWOS

0538 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E CARMEL              39.97N 86.07W
04/16/2013  M1.37 INCH       HAMILTON           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0612 PM     HAIL             CROTHERSVILLE           38.80N 85.84W
04/16/2013  E0.25 INCH       JACKSON            IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0619 PM     HAIL             FRANKLIN                39.49N 86.06W
04/16/2013  E0.25 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT

0658 PM     HAIL             DECKER                  38.52N 87.52W
04/16/2013  M1.00 INCH       KNOX               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0719 PM     HAIL             BICKNELL                38.78N 87.31W
04/16/2013  E0.25 INCH       KNOX               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0740 PM     HAIL             3 S WASHINGTON          38.61N 87.17W
04/16/2013  M0.88 INCH       DAVIESS            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM     HAIL             4 S WASHINGTON          38.60N 87.17W
04/16/2013  E0.70 INCH       DAVIESS            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER... LOCATION IS INTERSTATE 69
            NEAR MILE MARKER 57

0751 PM     HAIL             5 NNW SEYMOUR           39.03N 85.92W
04/16/2013  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0824 PM     HAIL             SHOALS                  38.67N 86.79W
04/16/2013  E0.50 INCH       MARTIN             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1018 PM     HAIL             VINCENNES               38.68N 87.51W
04/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       KNOX               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF 1 INCH HAIL

1018 PM     HAIL             VINCENNES               38.68N 87.51W
04/16/2013  M1.00 INCH       KNOX               IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CURRENTLY FALLING IN VINCENNES.

1019 PM     HAIL             VINCENNES               38.68N 87.51W
04/16/2013  M1.75 INCH       KNOX               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CURRENTLY FALLING AT THE EMERGENCY DISPATCH CENTER IN
            VINCENNES.

1020 PM     HAIL             VINCENNES               38.68N 87.51W
04/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       KNOX               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GROUND NEARLY COVERED LIKE SNOW

1055 PM     HAIL             COALMONT                39.19N 87.23W
04/16/2013  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0250 AM     HAIL             1 N SPEARSVILLE         39.35N 86.20W
04/17/2013  E1.50 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   STORM CHASER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

JH