Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
633 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 204 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ONE MORE DAY OF POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES...BEFORE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ARRIVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

06Z/1AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. ALOFT...VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MINNESOTA...WHILE A WEAKER WAVE IS
NOTED OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS. CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
HAS BEEN TIED TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30KT LLJ
FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RESULTING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK E/SE INTO MISSOURI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...STAYING OFF
TO THE W/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN THE WEAK LLJ AXIS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION POORLY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE
00Z JUL 10 SUITE IS NO EXCEPTION. WILL THEREFORE RELY MAINLY ON
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND CONSISTENCY FOR THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST. AS SUCH...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA THIS MORNING. AS COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY...RAIN THREAT WILL
ESSENTIALLY COME TO AN END ALONG AND NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN HIGH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 4000J/KG AND
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THINK THIS IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION. AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL FOCUS LIKELY POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS
TO TAYLORVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY...AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER SLOW TO
ARRIVE BEHIND FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-70.

MOST MODELS DROP FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY EVENING...HOWEVER 00Z NAM NOW FEATURES A WEAK WAVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT BRIEFLY IMPEDES ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.
SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THE WAVE HAS APPEARED ON...AND THERE
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY SUPPORTING UPPER SUPPORT FOR IT...WILL
GENERALLY DISREGARD THIS SOLUTION. WILL HOWEVER HANG ON TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP SOUTH OF I-70 INTO THE EVENING...IN CASE
AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE NOT DROPPED SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A COOL/DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BOTH
DAYS...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN AN E/SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND FULL JULY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY THE AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
AWAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE PICTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...AS
E/W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP MAIN STORM
TRACK AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

BARNES

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

MAIN CONCERN WITH THE TAFS WILL BE WITH THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. 11Z SURFACE OBS
SHOWING THE FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A KUIN-KC75-KORD LINE...SO THE
THREAT OF STORMS AROUND KPIA/KBMI WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE LINGERED THE RAIN CHANCES LONGEST AROUND
KCMI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND MORE NORTHERLY
AFTER SUNSET. SKIES MAINLY SHOULD BE CLEAR AFTER SUNSET...BUT
925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOTS SUGGESTING SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS
AROUND 4000 FEET NEAR KCMI INTO THE NIGHT...DUE TO WIND FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

GEELHART

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-041-111100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ040-047-049-050-111100-
CASS-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LINGERING FLOODING ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR BEARDSTOWN SHOULD
SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-111100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH ABOUT 2 PM.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-111100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM FLORA TO LAWRENCEVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME IS BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM.

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
749 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ042-101330-
LOGAN-
749 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 746 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HARTSBURG AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF
LINCOLN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINCOLN...
  BEASON...
  CHESTNUT...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4021 8915 4001 8915 4002 8944 4014 8960
      4030 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 301DEG 14KT 4020 8940

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
805 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 AM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
07/10/2013  M0.75 INCH       LOGAN              IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
824 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ038-042-043-053-101415-
DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-
824 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DE WITT...EASTERN LOGAN...
NORTHERN MACON AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 823 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MCLEAN TO MAROA TO
LATHAM...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN DE WITT...LOGAN...MACON AND MCLEAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF WAYNESVILLE...MCLEAN...MOUNT PULASKI...LATHAM...MAROA...
CLINTON...HEYWORTH...WAPELLA...WARRENSBURG AND FORSYTH...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4035 8875 4005 8876 3983 8896 3999 8945
      4017 8923 4037 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1324Z 289DEG 30KT 4030 8908 4006 8895
          3996 8922

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
835 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ041-042-048-101430-
LOGAN-MASON-MENARD-
835 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MASON...NORTHEASTERN
MENARD AND WESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 832 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EASTON...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MASON
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EASTON...
  MASON CITY...
  MIDDLETOWN...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4040 8988 4034 8971 4032 8971 4032 8965
      4020 8932 3999 8948 4024 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1335Z 302DEG 15KT 4028 8983

BARKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
848 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
07/10/2013                   LOGAN              IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN AT 5TH AND STATE STREET. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

0803 AM     LIGHTNING        LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
07/10/2013                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING STRIKE STARTED HOUSE FIRE ON 800 BLOCK OF N
            SHERMAN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

25

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