Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2013

Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

July 10, 2013Logan County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this special weather statement at Jul 10, 2013, 7:49 AM CDT for Logan County, Illinois. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2013, 7:49 AM CDT (12:49 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Lincoln, IL

County Logan County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 1 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3158 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -83 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1000 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 10, 6:33 AM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 6:33 AM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
633 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 204 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ONE MORE DAY OF POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES...BEFORE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ARRIVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

06Z/1AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
INTO FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. ALOFT...VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MINNESOTA...WHILE A WEAKER WAVE IS
NOTED OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS. CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
HAS BEEN TIED TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30KT LLJ
FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RESULTING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK E/SE INTO MISSOURI DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...STAYING OFF
TO THE W/SW OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN THE WEAK LLJ AXIS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION POORLY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE
00Z JUL 10 SUITE IS NO EXCEPTION. WILL THEREFORE RELY MAINLY ON
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND CONSISTENCY FOR THE IMMEDIATE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST. AS SUCH...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA THIS MORNING. AS COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY...RAIN THREAT WILL
ESSENTIALLY COME TO AN END ALONG AND NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO
BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN HIGH CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 4000J/KG AND
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MINNESOTA SHORT-WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THINK THIS IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION. AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN WILL FOCUS LIKELY POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS
TO TAYLORVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY...AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER SLOW TO
ARRIVE BEHIND FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-70.

MOST MODELS DROP FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY EVENING...HOWEVER 00Z NAM NOW FEATURES A WEAK WAVE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT BRIEFLY IMPEDES ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.
SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THE WAVE HAS APPEARED ON...AND THERE
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY SUPPORTING UPPER SUPPORT FOR IT...WILL
GENERALLY DISREGARD THIS SOLUTION. WILL HOWEVER HANG ON TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP SOUTH OF I-70 INTO THE EVENING...IN CASE
AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE NOT DROPPED SOUTH/EAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A COOL/DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BOTH
DAYS...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN AN E/SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND FULL JULY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY
MODIFY THE AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
AWAY...A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE PICTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND BEYOND...AS
E/W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP MAIN STORM
TRACK AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

BARNES

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

MAIN CONCERN WITH THE TAFS WILL BE WITH THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT...BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. 11Z SURFACE OBS
SHOWING THE FRONT GENERALLY ALONG A KUIN-KC75-KORD LINE...SO THE
THREAT OF STORMS AROUND KPIA/KBMI WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE LINGERED THE RAIN CHANCES LONGEST AROUND
KCMI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND MORE NORTHERLY
AFTER SUNSET. SKIES MAINLY SHOULD BE CLEAR AFTER SUNSET...BUT
925-850 MB HUMIDITY PLOTS SUGGESTING SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS
AROUND 4000 FEET NEAR KCMI INTO THE NIGHT...DUE TO WIND FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

GEELHART

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 6:03 AM CDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-041-111100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...UNTIL A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ040-047-049-050-111100-
CASS-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING
AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LINGERING FLOODING ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR BEARDSTOWN SHOULD
SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-111100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH ABOUT 2 PM.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-111100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
603 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM FLORA TO LAWRENCEVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME IS BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM.

GEELHART

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 5:27 AM CDT, 2 hours 22 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
527 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ030-031-101115-
MARSHALL-WOODFORD-
527 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WOODFORD AND SOUTHERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

AT 523 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHILLICOTHE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LACON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WASHBURN...
  MINONK...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...HOPEWELL...CAZENOVIA...LOW
POINT...LA ROSE...PATTONSBURG AND BENSON.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4098 8904 4093 8904 4093 8895 4077 8894
      4084 8953 4095 8945 4097 8945 4097 8952
      4103 8950
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 280DEG 27KT 4092 8943

GEELHART

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 7:30 AM CDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
730 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ038-101300-
MCLEAN-
730 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY UNTIL
800 AM CDT...

AT 728 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHENOA...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FAIRBURY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF WESTON...ANCHOR AND CROPSEY.

LAT...LON 4073 8858 4068 8858 4067 8857 4062 8857
      4062 8846 4050 8846 4069 8873 4076 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 304DEG 21KT 4069 8864

GEELHART

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 7:49 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
749 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

ILZ042-101330-
LOGAN-
749 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 746 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HARTSBURG AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF
LINCOLN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINCOLN...
  BEASON...
  CHESTNUT...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4021 8915 4001 8915 4002 8944 4014 8960
      4030 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 301DEG 14KT 4020 8940

GEELHART

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 5:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Woodford	48 min
Jul 10, 7:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	McLean	30 min
Jul 10, 8:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	DeWitt, Macon	51 min
Jul 10, 8:35 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Mason	55 min
Jul 10, 8:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Logan, Mason, Menard	50 min
Jul 10, 9:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Vermilion	28 min
Jul 10, 9:18 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Logan, Mason, Menard	6 hr
Jul 10, 9:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Champaign	34 min
Jul 10, 9:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Douglas, Moultrie	31 min
Jul 10, 9:51 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILX	Sangamon	6 hr
Jul 10, 10:03 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILX	DeWitt, Macon	6 hr
Jul 10, 10:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Champaign	36 min
Jul 10, 10:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Edgar	37 min
Jul 10, 10:40 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILX	Vermilion	6 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2013 Every special weather statement in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.