Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Lincoln, IL

307 
WWUS53 KILX 171617
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC057-095-143-171645-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-131117T1645Z/
PEORIA IL-FULTON IL-KNOX IL-
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
KNOX...NORTHERN FULTON AND SOUTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM
CST...

AT 1016 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PRAIRIE CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANTON...CUBA...LONDON MILLS...ST. DAVID...FAIRVIEW...MAQUON...
FARMINGTON...YATES CITY...GLASFORD...ELMWOOD...TRIVOLI...
ELLISVILLE...BRYANT...FIATT...DUNFERMLINE...NORRIS...MIDDLE GROVE...
BANNER AND KINGSTON MINES.

INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60 AND 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8973 4054 8981 4053 8983 4032 9045
      4067 9045 4094 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 234DEG 53KT 4058 9030

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

BARNES

421 
WWUS53 KILX 171644
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1044 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC057-095-143-171654-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-131117T1645Z/
PEORIA IL-FULTON IL-KNOX IL-
1044 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...NORTHERN
FULTON AND SOUTHWESTERN PEORIA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 AM CST...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST!

LAT...LON 4056 8973 4054 8981 4053 8983 4032 9045
      4067 9045 4094 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 234DEG 53KT 4081 8987

$$

BARNES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
605 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

SHORT TERM...Today and tonight:

Ingredients still coming together for potential significant severe
weather and wind event today. Latest surface map showing a pair of
lows, one in northern Minnesota and the other in north central
Kansas. Temperatures have gone nowhere overnight and were about 10
degrees above the normal highs for the date. Southerly winds
have settled down a tad but still gusted to 20-25 mph in some
areas as of 2 am. Abundant moisture in place with 60 degree dew
points as far north as Pontiac. Strong low level jet of around 50
knots at 925 mb has been feeding some persistent convection along
the Ohio River, with scattered convection further north. Powerful
upper level jet of 110+ knots has been streaming southeast from
the Pacific Northwest, with a secondary jet in the southern stream
of 90-100 knots coming into the Ohio Valley.

Latest model runs slowing the system down a tad, but still
sweeping the front through the CWA between noon and 4 pm. Main
convective activity expected to initiate late morning between I-55
and the Mississippi River, then rapidly sweep eastward through mid
afternoon, ending across the southeast tip of the CWA toward
sunset. Bulk shear of 65-75 knots from 0-6km and SBCAPE values
around 1000 J/kg will help feed the severe storms, with a
significant tornado threat. Latest Day1 outlook from SPC includes
areas along and east of I-57 in a high risk for severe weather
today, with a moderate risk most other areas in the CWA, and
tornado probabilities of 15-30%. Significant threat of damaging
winds with the storms as well.

Outside of the storms, the winds will be a problem as well. Wind
gusts of 35-45 mph will be likely from late morning through the
afternoon. Behind the front, strong isallobaric rises are
progged, with 3-hour pressure changes of 8 to 10 mb pushing
through central and northern Illinois late this afternoon. RAP
model guidance suggesting an hour or two of gusts 50-60 mph
preceding the core of the highest pressure changes. Have elected
to upgrade about the northern half of the wind advisory to a high
wind warning as a result, generally along and north of a Havana to
Danville line. Have left the expiration time as 6 pm. Will still
see some gusts of 30-35 mph early in the evening across the
northeast, but this will diminish as the pressure couplet moves
into the Chicago area.

LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday:

Aside from some breezy weather on Monday in the wake of the storm
system, a quiet period is on tap through Tuesday. Next shortwave
should swing through mid week, with some showers mainly Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Upper pattern later in the week continues to shift toward a split
flow, with Illinois caught in the middle. More agreement now noted
between the GFS and ECMWF with a large cutoff low southwest of
California late in the week, as faster shortwaves swing through
the northern stream across the Great Lakes. The ECMWF is a bit on
the wetter side with this pattern, with the earlier wave getting
hung up and loitering over the Ohio Valley until Friday night,
whereas the GFS focuses more on the phasing of the two streams on
Friday. Have gone with 50 percent PoP's for Friday, then decreased
them Friday night before keeping Saturday mainly dry.

This particular pattern indicates a pretty good shot of cold air
coming into the Great Lakes during the weekend. How far it gets
south into our area remains to be seen.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

Strong south winds just around 1500 ft will continue to produce
LLWS conditions for at least a couple hours of this TAF period.
Turbulent mixing will quickly increase by mid morning, dragging
the strong winds to the surface and reducing the LLWS conditions.

Strong to severe storms will develop toward PIA between 16z-18z,
SPI and BMI between 17z-19z, DEC between 18z-20z, and CMI between
19z-21z. Damaging winds of 55kt to 65kt and strong tornadoes of
EF2 or greater damage will be possible at all terminal sites.

Sustained south winds ahead of the front will climb to 30-35kt
with gusts to 50kt possible. Behind the front, west-southwest
winds will continue at 20G35kt. Winds will diminish this evening
as the cold front moves away to the east.

MVFR and local IFR cloud heights this morning will break up as the
cold front approaches and storms develop. During storms, IFR and
LIFR conditions may develop for short periods of time.

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
FOR ILZ040-047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
541 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-041-042-181200-
FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
541 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AROUND 10
AM...THEN PUSH EAST OF I-55 AFTER 1 PM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM TODAY.

ILZ040-047>051-181200-
CASS-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
541 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AROUND 10
AM...THEN PUSH EAST OF I-55 AFTER 1 PM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH AT TIMES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 9 AM AND 2 PM TODAY.

ILZ052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-181200-
CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
541 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST A
LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF I-55 AFTER 1 PM...THEN WILL REACH
THE ILLINOIS INDIANA BORDER BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE...PROVIDING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH AT TIMES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM TODAY.

ILZ038-043>046-181200-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-MCLEAN-PIATT-VERMILION-
541 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST A
LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF I-55 AFTER 1 PM...THEN WILL REACH
THE ILLINOIS INDIANA BORDER BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE...PROVIDING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 40 MPH... WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN NOON AND 5 PM TODAY.

SHIMON