Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Lincoln, IL

552 
WWUS53 KILX 170610
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1210 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC033-170618-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-131117T0630Z/
CRAWFORD IL-
1210 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3893 8780 3909 8791 3917 8772 3917 8766
      3915 8765 3914 8765 3912 8763 3911 8763
      3910 8761 3909 8762 3907 8757 3902 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 243DEG 59KT 3917 8746

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1111 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 820 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2013

Upper wave that brought in the showers and isolated thunderstorms
to the area today was tracking off to our north and east rather
quickly. However, the main upper wave was seen on water vapor
with the main piece of energy pushing into western Wyoming.
The wave that affected us today and the stronger feature out in
the Rockies will merge across the upper Midwest early Sunday
which in turn will intensify the surface low now in Kansas. This
low will track to the west of the area and deepen in significantly
Sunday morning. Strong winds just off the surface will transport
moisture north in advance of the system out to our west tonight
bringing scattered showers and storms to the area overnight with
two primary areas of lift indicated on models. One over northern
Missouri and southern Iowa in conjunction with a developing warm
front will aid in keeping showers and storms going out to our
west with our northwest third threatened overnight. The second
area will be over southeast Illinois where strong 850 mb theta-e
advection and moisture transport will aid in a more widespread
shower and thunderstorm threat into the morning hours of Sunday.
Severe threat looks to be mainly the threat for some hail and
damaging wind gusts with a few of the more organized storms.

The cold front is then expected to race east across our area late
Sunday morning and especially Sunday afternoon with storms firing
along or just ahead of the boundary. Plenty of shear available
for any discrete storms to rotate...with any persistent mesocyclones
having the potential to produce a tornado before evolving more
into a fast moving quasi-linear convective system with the
potential for widespread wind damage in its path. Still looks like
our primary time frame will be from around 10 am along the Illinois
River valley with our far eastern areas seeing the storms push off
to their east between 4 and 5 pm. The wind advisory will continue
on Sunday with the potential for gradient wind speeds of up to 50
mph at times just ahead and behind the surging cold front.

Have only made some minor changes to the hourly temperatures and
winds in the grids...but not siginficant enough to warrant an
update at this time.

Smith

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2013

Main forecast concern will be coverage of mvfr or lower cigs
during the early morning hours...with our attention turning
to the threat from strong winds and possibly severe
thunderstorms starting late Sunday morning at PIA and then
racing east and approaching CMI by 20z. The primary area of
MVFR cigs late this evening was east of I-55 with model data
indicating a sharp cutoff as VFR cigs were noted to the west
while the MVFR cigs hang on thru the night across the east.
Tough call on that one but believe our west may stay out of
the MVFR for part of the early morning before the persistent
southerly flow of warm moist air brings back at least a broken
mvfr cig to SPI and PIA.

As far as timing of the cold front and convection...not much has
changed from the previous forecast with PIA the first in line to
see the threat of storms in the 16z-18z time frame...and in SPI
and BMI from 17z-19z and by 20z at CMI. Outside any storm, strong
gradient winds will gust as high as 40kts at times right along and
immediately behind the fast moving cold front for a few hours
before diminishing rapidly aftr 00z. Winds tonight will remain
south at 15 to 25 kts and then begin to veer more into the
southwest as the front sweeps across the area. We are seeing some
of the surface wind gusts diminishing some late this evening so
will continue with LLWS at most areas due to the 40-50 kts around
1500 feet AGL.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 225 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2013

Pair of strong low pressure systems will impact our weather
significantly over the next 30 hours. Potential for severe weather
remains significant for Sunday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday

Models consistent on focusing and translating energy from broad
wave covering western U.S. into the Midwest by the end of the
weekend. The energy is expected to come out in two waves. The
first is reflected by a low pressure system currently over
eastern South Dakota. As the low exits quickly into Ontario, low
level jet is expected to develop in response and transport Gulf
moisture into the midwest. Dew points have reached 60 degrees as
far north as Clinton AR at 19z and should continue to move
northward. Precipitation is expected to expand in coverage overnight.

The second stronger wave is expected to come out of the plains on
Sunday with rapid cyclogenesis over Iowa and Missouri prior to sunrise.
Strong 140+ kt jet currently plunging down the Pacific Coast is
expected to round the base of the trough on Sunday and in
combination with the strong low-level jet produce extremely strong
shear. The intensifying low pressure system is expected to be
crossing southern Wisconsin by Midday with a trailing cold front
extending southward near the Illinois river. As the strong cooling
aloft and the surface cold front encounters the preexisting low-
level jet and boundary layer moisture, thunderstorms will initiate
along the boundary, and possibly in the high moisture air ahead of
the system.

The primary severe weather threat with the front will be strong
and damaging once the convection organizes as momentum is brought
to the surface by the storm. Wild card is the potential for discrete
cells before the line develops and out ahead of the line. Any
discrete cells will be able to quickly spin given the tremendous
amounts of shear being tapped. Can not rule out tornadoes,
possibly strong, in this scenario, Particularly across eastern
forecast area.

The system will move very quickly eastward as the upper jet rounds
the base of the trough. Front and accompanying severe weather
threat will likely be into Indiana by 7 pm or so.

With very dynamic system and potential downdrafts to transport
low-level winds to the surface, will need a wind advisory from
late morning until an hour or two after frontal passage for entire
forecast area. Will issue until 00z and allow shift tomorrow to
cancel from west to east.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Saturday

A very progressive pattern remains in place. As low pulls out
quickly northeast, weak shortwave ridging develops allowing temps
to rebound rather quickly to near normal by midweek. Lots of
uncertainty in model soultions become apparent after that with
each model containing different levels of southern stream energy
digging into the southwest U.S.  Overall, flow off Gulf should
lead to a wetter period than is climatological normal for the end
of the week. However,Timing of individual waves ejecting out of
this trough make pinpointing days with/without PoPs difficult.
Will have to broadbrush sligh chc/chc PoPs for much of the period
to cover potential.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
308 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>052-171200-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-
PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
308 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AROUND 10
AM...THEN PUSH EAST OF I-55 AFTER 1 PM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH AT TIMES ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM ON SUNDAY.

ILZ038-043>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-171200-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-
308 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...TRIGGERING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST A
LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF I-55 AFTER 1 PM...THEN WILL REACH
THE ILLINOIS INDIANA BORDER BY AROUND 6 PM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE...PROVIDING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH AT TIMES ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM ON SUNDAY.

BARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

ILZ063-068-170615-
CLARK-CRAWFORD-
1150 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CST...

AT 1145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EATON...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROBINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HUTSONVILLE...
  WEST UNION...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...TRIMBLE...WEST YORK AND YORK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3920 8758 3914 8765 3912 8763 3911 8763
      3910 8761 3909 8762 3908 8759 3907 8759
      3899 8780 3915 8791 3928 8760 3926 8760
      3926 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 242DEG 60KT 3911 8775

SMITH