Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BUOYANT AND VOLATILE SITUATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE ILN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF
SUN...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED IN FROM THE SW...REACHING THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA (EVEN A FEW SITES REPORTING MID
70S). CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES 2000-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...WITH SBCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN WESTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. KILN VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL WSW
FLOW...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO SOME GRADUAL TURNING IN THE
HODOGRAPH. HOWEVER...SPEEDS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...SO OVERALL
THE SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE.

THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WNW-TO-ESE BOUNDARY AT 700MB ON THETA-E AND
DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO INTO CENTRAL OHIO.
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING ALONG THIS
FEATURE AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK VORT MAX
IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...AND MAY ALSO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AFTER THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THE OVERALL WIND FLOW WOULD SUPPORT WSW
MOVEMENT...AND PROPAGATION EFFECTS MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A BIT
MORE OF A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT.

GIVEN THE INSTABILITY TODAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINITELY A
POSSIBILITY...AS THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE LACK OF SHEAR MAY MEAN THAT CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE ON THE DISORGANIZED SIDE OF THE SCALE...THOUGH SOME
CLUSTERS COULD CONGEAL AND DEVELOP COLD POOLS (HRRR AND WRF-ARW
RUNS SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY).

FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN. IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE GREATEST FLOODING THREAT...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PLAYED A
BIG ROLE. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ILN TIER OF COUNTIES...GENERALLY
WHERE THE OLD FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS IN EFFECT FOR. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS AND THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST (AT
LEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON) ALSO SUPPORT THIS GENERAL AREA...OR
PERHAPS A LITTLE BIGGER OF AN AREA THAN THE OLD WATCH COVERED.
AMONG THE MANY PARAMETERS...PWAT VALUES ARE OVER 2 INCHES (AROUND
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL). WHILE THIS PARAMETERS IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
ALL PLACES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEM TO
FAVOR NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE LOCATION OF THE WATCH. THE EXPANSION ENSURES COVERAGE
FOR ALL AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND
THE EXTENSION IN TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY COVERS ANY THREATS FROM
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOMORROW. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FLOOD
THREAT WILL EXIST FURTHER SOUTH...AS THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA AND
THE REST OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY ARE NOT EXACTLY DRY RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION UNCERTAINTY (AND THE FEELING THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT QUITE IMMINENT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS)
CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A FURTHER EXTENSION IN AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE
CHANGING WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND.

THE EXPECTED ONGOING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE AN
UNCERTAIN SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW AND
WRF-NMM...COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...DO SHOW
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND IMPACTING THE CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
ALSO SHOW THAT WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE EXITING THE
CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL PERSIST...LIKELY
RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER. WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A PARTIAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DIURNAL MINIMUM PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN A
MODIFIED AIR MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT (TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF WHATEVER HEATING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP). NAM/GFS
INSTABILITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER HIGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
(3000-4000 J/KG)...DUE AS MUCH TO THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS (MID TO
UPPER 70S...PERHAPS A BIT TOO HIGH) AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED
SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ULTIMATELY...IMPACTS FROM OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THESE
FORECASTS (PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES)...WHICH LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE FORECAST
TOMORROW. DUE TO THE RESPECTABLE FORCING COMING ALONG WITH THE
COLD FRONT...THE INCREASING SHEAR (ESPECIALLY AS OPPOSED TO THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR TUESDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HIGH INSTABILITY...WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR A
SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS SIMPLY NOT HIGH IN A SPECIFIC
SCENARIO. THOUGH MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PWATS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THUS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS CHANGED AT ALL SINCE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS NECESSITATED
A LOWERING IN MIN TEMPS (PRIMARILY IN THE NW CWA). ALSO...THE
HIGHER POPS WERE ENDED FROM NW TO SE SLIGHTLY QUICKER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.  ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SYSTEM SE
OF THE FA.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA
MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS PRETTY LOW.  DUE TO THIS HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AIDED BY SHORT WAVES ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY CMH LCK AND ILN WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CVG AND LUK POSSIBLY SPARED
THE MAIN EFFECTS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL LATE
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL RECUR ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     043>046-051>056-062>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-060-061-070>072-
077>082-088-101745-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
AND BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-051>056-062>065-073-074-101745-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...THUS A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
AND BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

HATZOS

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