Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
229 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BUOYANT AND VOLATILE SITUATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE ILN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF
SUN...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED IN FROM THE SW...REACHING THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA (EVEN A FEW SITES REPORTING MID
70S). CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES 2000-2500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...WITH SBCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN WESTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. KILN VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL WSW
FLOW...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO SOME GRADUAL TURNING IN THE
HODOGRAPH. HOWEVER...SPEEDS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...SO OVERALL
THE SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE.

THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A WNW-TO-ESE BOUNDARY AT 700MB ON THETA-E AND
DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...STRETCHING FROM CHICAGO INTO CENTRAL OHIO.
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING ALONG THIS
FEATURE AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK VORT MAX
IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...AND MAY ALSO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AFTER THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...THE OVERALL WIND FLOW WOULD SUPPORT WSW
MOVEMENT...AND PROPAGATION EFFECTS MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A BIT
MORE OF A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT.

GIVEN THE INSTABILITY TODAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINITELY A
POSSIBILITY...AS THE AIR MASS IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE LACK OF SHEAR MAY MEAN THAT CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE ON THE DISORGANIZED SIDE OF THE SCALE...THOUGH SOME
CLUSTERS COULD CONGEAL AND DEVELOP COLD POOLS (HRRR AND WRF-ARW
RUNS SEEM TO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY).

FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN. IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE GREATEST FLOODING THREAT...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PLAYED A
BIG ROLE. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS HAS BEEN RATHER HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ILN TIER OF COUNTIES...GENERALLY
WHERE THE OLD FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS IN EFFECT FOR. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS AND THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST (AT
LEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON) ALSO SUPPORT THIS GENERAL AREA...OR
PERHAPS A LITTLE BIGGER OF AN AREA THAN THE OLD WATCH COVERED.
AMONG THE MANY PARAMETERS...PWAT VALUES ARE OVER 2 INCHES (AROUND
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL). WHILE THIS PARAMETERS IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
ALL PLACES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEM TO
FAVOR NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS
SUPPORTS THE LOCATION OF THE WATCH. THE EXPANSION ENSURES COVERAGE
FOR ALL AREAS IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND
THE EXTENSION IN TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY COVERS ANY THREATS FROM
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TOMORROW. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FLOOD
THREAT WILL EXIST FURTHER SOUTH...AS THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA AND
THE REST OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY ARE NOT EXACTLY DRY RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION UNCERTAINTY (AND THE FEELING THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT QUITE IMMINENT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS)
CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A FURTHER EXTENSION IN AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT) WILL
BE UPDATED SOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...IN THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND WITH
A PASSING DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA...CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE
ONGOING AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT'S TIME PERIOD. THE EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST IN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START TONIGHT. UPSTREAM...A
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
EXACTLY THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE...COULD NOT LEAN THE POPS
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER GEOGRAPHICALLY IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
PACKAGE ISSUANCE. REGARDLESS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR
COULD STILL POSE A FLOOD THREAT...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS BECOME INTENSE. TONIGHT'S SEVERE
PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT
THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
TO INCREASE SHEAR ACROSS OUR AREA AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT...THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HWO FOR THE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING TO THE AREA A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S. EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL LOWER 60S
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.  ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SYSTEM SE
OF THE FA.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA
MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS PRETTY LOW.  DUE TO THIS HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AIDED BY SHORT WAVES ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
NORTHERN TAF SITES DAY CMH LCK AND ILN WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CVG AND LUK POSSIBLY SPARED
THE MAIN EFFECTS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL LATE
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL RECUR ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE OUT THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     043>046-051>056-062>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-060-061-070>072-
077>082-088-101745-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
AND BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-051>056-062>065-073-074-101745-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...THUS A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
AND BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

HATZOS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>