Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
240 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NW INDIANA AND CENTRAL IL
WITH FAST MOVING STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT NOW INTO FCST AREA. 2 INCH
PLUS PW VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF REGION...AND DESPITE FAILY
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS...VERY EFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2K TO 3K J/KG
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 0-1KM SHEAR NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY...THOUGH ISOLATED TOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FROPA FROM NEAR 00-07UTC THROUGH REGION..WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE NW TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL IN UPR 60S IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA IN THE FAR SE NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THOUGH SOME CU FOR
THURSDAY...PLENTY OF SUN IN STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH ON THURS UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON THU NIGHT UPR 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AN
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST ON THE GFS AND ECMWF TO TRAVEL SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THOUGH THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE
EAST...ENOUGH COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY COME INTO PLAY TO BRING ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL. UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW...HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 80. NEAR NORMAL MID AND UPPER 80S ARE IN
STORE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS WARMS UNDER
INSOLATION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FA. TSTMS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z-24Z. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE BRIEFLY REDUCED TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SKIES AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...PARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
314 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-111915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
314 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
416 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW SIDNEY            40.28N 84.17W
07/10/2013  M86 MPH          SHELBY             OH   MESONET

            WEATHERBUG SENSOR AT SIDNEY MIDDLE SCHOOL

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N CARLISLE            39.66N 84.33W
07/10/2013                   MONTGOMERY         OH   PUBLIC

            ONE LARGE TREE DOWN, PULLED POWER LINES DOWN

0329 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE FAIRBORN           39.78N 83.99W
07/10/2013                   GREENE             OH   PUBLIC

            TWO LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
419 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TSTM WND GST     KCMH PORT COLUMBUS APT  40.00N 82.89W
07/10/2013  M71.00 MPH       FRANKLIN           OH   ASOS

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YELLOW SPRINGS          39.80N 83.89W
07/10/2013                   GREENE             OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE WILMINGTON        39.42N 83.82W
07/10/2013  M46.00 MPH       CLINTON            OH   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE IN WILMINGTON OHIO.

0408 PM     TSTM WND GST     KILN WILMINGTON APT     39.43N 83.79W
07/10/2013  M51.00 MPH       CLINTON            OH   ASOS

&&

HATZOS