River Flood Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
851 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT. AND THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER CELLS. BUT THEN AFTER CURRENT STORMS
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST IT SEEMS THAT THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THERE COULD STILL
BE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUT RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS
HAVE BACKED OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS. SO JUST KEPT A LOW CHANCE
BEHIND CURRENT ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE
CHANGING WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND.

THE EXPECTED ONGOING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CREATE AN
UNCERTAIN SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY. 12Z RUNS OF THE WRF-ARW AND
WRF-NMM...COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS RUNS OF THE HRRR...DO SHOW
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD AND IMPACTING THE CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
ALSO SHOW THAT WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE EXITING THE
CWA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL PERSIST...LIKELY
RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER. WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A PARTIAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DIURNAL MINIMUM PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN A
MODIFIED AIR MASS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT (TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF WHATEVER HEATING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP). NAM/GFS
INSTABILITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER HIGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
(3000-4000 J/KG)...DUE AS MUCH TO THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS (MID TO
UPPER 70S...PERHAPS A BIT TOO HIGH) AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED
SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...ULTIMATELY...IMPACTS FROM OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THESE
FORECASTS (PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES)...WHICH LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE FORECAST
TOMORROW. DUE TO THE RESPECTABLE FORCING COMING ALONG WITH THE
COLD FRONT...THE INCREASING SHEAR (ESPECIALLY AS OPPOSED TO THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR TUESDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HIGH INSTABILITY...WEDNESDAY CERTAINLY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR A
SEVERE POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS SIMPLY NOT HIGH IN A SPECIFIC
SCENARIO. THOUGH MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PWATS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THUS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS CHANGED AT ALL SINCE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS NECESSITATED
A LOWERING IN MIN TEMPS (PRIMARILY IN THE NW CWA). ALSO...THE
HIGHER POPS WERE ENDED FROM NW TO SE SLIGHTLY QUICKER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOW 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.  ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF SYSTEM SE
OF THE FA.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA
MAY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS PRETTY LOW.  DUE TO THIS HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL OHIO TERMINALS EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THESE MOVE OFF THERE COULD STILL BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
PROBABILITY IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT BUT DID INCLUDE A
PERIOD OF VCSH. THEREAFTER HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION MENTION UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN A LINE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     043>046-051>056-062>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-060-061-070>072-
077>082-088-101745-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
AND BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-051>056-062>065-073-074-101745-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...THUS A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
AND BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TOMORROW.

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
834 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

OHZ035-100100-
AUGLAIZE OH-
834 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AUGLAIZE COUNTY THROUGH 900 PM
EDT...

AT 833 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WAPAKONETA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
WAPAKONETA...CRIDERSVILLE...WAYNESFIELD...
FRYBURG...ST. JOHNS...UNIOPOLIS AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

LAT...LON 4066 8422 4066 8411 4065 8410 4065 8388
      4054 8388 4054 8399 4049 8400 4048 8442
      4067 8436 4068 8422

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
845 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

OHZ034-035-043-100115-
AUGLAIZE OH-MERCER OH-SHELBY OH-
845 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SHELBY...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND SOUTHWESTERN AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM
EDT...

AT 841 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHICKASAW...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
NEW BREMEN...MINSTER...FORT LORAMIE...SIDNEY...EGYPT...
LAKE LORAMIE STATE PARK...KETTLERSVILLE AND ANNA.

LAT...LON 4045 8414 4026 8411 4032 8443 4036 8444
      4036 8453 4048 8450

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
907 PM EDT TUE JUL 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PATASKALA               40.00N 82.67W
07/09/2013                   LICKING            OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ONE TREE UPROOTED

&&

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
913 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

OHZ043-100130-
SHELBY OH-
913 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY THROUGH
930 PM EDT...

AT 908 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE
LORAMIE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
ANNA...SIDNEY...MCCARTYVILLE...HARDIN...PEMBERTON...
SWANDERS...MAPLEWOOD...MONTRA AND PORT JEFFERSON.

LAT...LON 4044 8402 4022 8403 4031 8435 4038 8438
      4038 8434 4046 8433

HATZOS

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