Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
734 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

A PV ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
WHILE A DRYLINE WAS BECOMING MORE DEFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
MID/UPPER TROUGH AS THE WARM SECTOR IS PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

SVR #149 HAS BEEN EXTENDED ACROSS REMAINDER OF SC KS TO AS FAR E AS
CHASE...GREENWOOD...ELK & CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES WITH SVR #149 REMAINING
IN EFFECT TIL 11 PM CDT. WX GRIDS HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED TO APPLY
COVERAGE DESCRIPTORS (NUMEROUS) TO ALL AFFECTED COUNTIES FOR WHICH SVR
#149 IS IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

AN UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED PRIMARILY TO CHANGE T+RA+GR DESCRIPTOR FROM
"LIKELY" TO "NUMEROUS" WHERE CONVECTION IN PROGRESS. A 2ND REASON WAS
TO FINE-TUNE WINDS TO REFLECT OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE WITH MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ML CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE LLJ MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW THE MORE VIGOROUS DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE CELLS MAY LINGER NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT MOST LOCATION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT MAY FALL BY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CAA BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS
A MID/UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S/AROUND 90 TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

NUMEROUS T+RA+GR WILL THREATEN ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS THIS EVENING WHERE
SVR #149 REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 11PM. TSRA TO BE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS
SE KS THIS EVE...BUT AS WEAK SE-MOVG COLD FRONT VENTURES TOWARD...THEN
ACROSS...SC KS LATE TONIGHT TSRA COVERAGE IS SURE TO INCREASE WITH CIGS
LIKELY TO DROP INTO 1,500-2,500FT RANGE WITH MVFR VSBYS RESULTING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  72  55  69 /  70  40  20  20
HUTCHINSON      58  70  54  67 /  80  40  20  20
NEWTON          58  71  54  68 /  80  40  20  20
ELDORADO        59  72  55  69 /  80  50  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  73  56  70 /  70  50  20  30
RUSSELL         56  68  52  66 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      57  69  52  66 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          58  71  53  68 /  70  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       58  70  54  67 /  80  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  76  59  73 /  70  60  30  30
CHANUTE         60  75  57  71 /  80  60  30  30
IOLA            60  74  56  71 /  80  60  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    60  76  59  72 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
743 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
743 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL AND WINDS
AROUND 70 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO HIT CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
939 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ032-090315-
RUSSELL-
939 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 935 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LUCAS TO SUSANK...
AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3910 9849 3870 9849 3870 9888 3911 9869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 259DEG 26KT 3904 9857 3871 9874

LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ048-050-090345-
ELLSWORTH-RICE-
958 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELLSWORTH AND RICE COUNTIES...

AT 952 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILSON TO BUSHTON TO
6 MILES WEST OF CHASE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 9793 3822 9793 3823 9846 3887 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 269DEG 19KT 3878 9841 3855 9838
          3836 9842

KETCHAM

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