Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
734 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

A PV ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
WHILE A DRYLINE WAS BECOMING MORE DEFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
MID/UPPER TROUGH AS THE WARM SECTOR IS PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

SVR #149 HAS BEEN EXTENDED ACROSS REMAINDER OF SC KS TO AS FAR E AS
CHASE...GREENWOOD...ELK & CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES WITH SVR #149 REMAINING
IN EFFECT TIL 11 PM CDT. WX GRIDS HAVE ALSO BEEN UPDATED TO APPLY
COVERAGE DESCRIPTORS (NUMEROUS) TO ALL AFFECTED COUNTIES FOR WHICH SVR
#149 IS IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

AN UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED PRIMARILY TO CHANGE T+RA+GR DESCRIPTOR FROM
"LIKELY" TO "NUMEROUS" WHERE CONVECTION IN PROGRESS. A 2ND REASON WAS
TO FINE-TUNE WINDS TO REFLECT OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 11 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE WITH MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ML CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE LLJ MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW THE MORE VIGOROUS DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY WHERE THE MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE CELLS MAY LINGER NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG THE FRONT ON SAT...BUT MOST LOCATION
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT MAY FALL BY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CAA BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS
A MID/UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S/AROUND 90 TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

NUMEROUS T+RA+GR WILL THREATEN ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS THIS EVENING WHERE
SVR #149 REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 11PM. TSRA TO BE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS
SE KS THIS EVE...BUT AS WEAK SE-MOVG COLD FRONT VENTURES TOWARD...THEN
ACROSS...SC KS LATE TONIGHT TSRA COVERAGE IS SURE TO INCREASE WITH CIGS
LIKELY TO DROP INTO 1,500-2,500FT RANGE WITH MVFR VSBYS RESULTING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  72  55  69 /  70  40  20  20
HUTCHINSON      58  70  54  67 /  80  40  20  20
NEWTON          58  71  54  68 /  80  40  20  20
ELDORADO        59  72  55  69 /  80  50  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  73  56  70 /  70  50  20  30
RUSSELL         56  68  52  66 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      57  69  52  66 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          58  71  53  68 /  70  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       58  70  54  67 /  80  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  76  59  73 /  70  60  30  30
CHANUTE         60  75  57  71 /  80  60  30  30
IOLA            60  74  56  71 /  80  60  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    60  76  59  72 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
743 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
743 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL AND WINDS
AROUND 70 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO HIT CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
708 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ092-090100-
SUMNER-
708 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMNER COUNTY...

AT 704 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF ARGONIA...OR 15 MILES EAST OF
ANTHONY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 9769 3747 9732 3705 9780 3729 9779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 215DEG 18KT 3720 9774

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
741 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             3 NE CUNNINGHAM         37.67N 98.39W
05/08/2013  E0.75 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
745 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

KSZ032-090130-
RUSSELL-
745 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 742 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARADISE...OR 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9868 3894 9867 3891 9904 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 265DEG 11KT 3905 9903

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
748 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             WEST WICHITA            37.69N 97.46W
05/08/2013  E0.88 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL AND DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 119TH AND CENTRAL.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
750 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             3 S MAIZE               37.73N 97.46W
05/08/2013  E1.75 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
751 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             WEST WICHITA            37.69N 97.46W
05/08/2013  E1.50 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL HAIL REPORTED BY A SPOTTER AT 167TH AND
            MAPLE.

&&

VJP