Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND MCV WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF NW NEB INTO KS LATE THIS AFTN. WITH A COUPLE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING ACROSS SW KS INTO CEN KS. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE TWO MENTIONED FEATURES... WITH BULK SHEAR (30-35 KTS)
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME YEAR FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. COULD SEE A RISK OF HIGH END SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOP ACROSS CEN KS THIS AFTN... AS HP SUPERCELLS LOOK
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLE GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THINK THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LARGE HAIL AS BIG AS
GOLFBALLS/TENNIS BALLS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTH...THINK
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THAT ANY CEN KS STORM CHANCE WILL CONGEAL
INTO SOME SORT OF SOUTHWARD MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WITH DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AS 850-700H MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH CEN KS...JUST TO THE WEST OF
KICT...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CEN KS.
THIS WILL HELP FEED THIS EXPECTED COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT DRIVES
SOUTH INTO WRN OK. NOT EXPECTING THIS COMPLEX TO BE A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCER...AS PROGRESSIVE NATURE WILL KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DOWN. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT FLOODING POTENTIAL
LOOKS VERY LOCALIZED...SO NOT GOING WITH ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH
FOR TNGT.

NOT SURE HOW LONG THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 06Z/FRI...WITH POPS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN KS UNTIL FRI AM.

FRI-SUN: LATEST GFS TRYS TO LINGER SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE
AREA INTO FRI AFTN...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. SO THINK MOST OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BY FRI MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME
LOW POPS ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRIER LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
FRI AFTN/EVE...AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEKEND TO DRY OUT FOR THE AREA...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS FURTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT STILL SOME 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR A PROLONGED VISIT INTO THE WORK WEEK.
MAIN SFC RIDGE DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SE US...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS...
POSSIBLY KEEPING ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER WRN/NW KS WHERE THE
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LOCATED. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS COME
OFF THIS BOUNDARY AND VENTURE FURTHER EAST INTO CEN KS BUT CHANCES
SEEM VERY SMALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO WILL KEEP THE
THINGS DRY THROUGH THU.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

NOT VERY CLEAR HOW STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET...WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND MARIGINAL CAPPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WILL CARRY A LIBERAL VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN DRY AFTER THAT. ANTICIPATE
CONSIDERABLE TWEAKING ONCE TREND/EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  81  62  83 /  60  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  81  61  83 /  70  10  10  10
NEWTON          62  79  61  81 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        61  80  60  82 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  80  62  83 /  60  20  10  10
RUSSELL         62  82  61  84 /  60  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      62  81  61  83 /  70  10  10   0
SALINA          62  82  62  84 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  81  61  83 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     61  81  59  84 /  40  20  10   0
CHANUTE         60  80  58  83 /  40  20  10   0
IOLA            59  79  58  82 /  30  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  80  59  83 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
407 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
407 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE...OR WEST
OF AN EMPORIA TO WICHITA TO WINFIELD LINE. LARGE HAIL TO AROUND
GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS TO AROUND 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS...WHICH MAY AGGRAVATE SOME MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE RISK FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER AT ARKANSAS CITY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WHILE ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ALONG AND WEST OF
KANSAS TURNPIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/KETCHAM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             1 S GLENDALE            38.89N 97.87W
08/15/2013  E1.00 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND NEAR I-70
            GLENDALE EXIT.

&&

CDJ