Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND MCV WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF NW NEB INTO KS LATE THIS AFTN. WITH A COUPLE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING ACROSS SW KS INTO CEN KS. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE TWO MENTIONED FEATURES... WITH BULK SHEAR (30-35 KTS)
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME YEAR FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. COULD SEE A RISK OF HIGH END SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOP ACROSS CEN KS THIS AFTN... AS HP SUPERCELLS LOOK
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLE GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THINK THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LARGE HAIL AS BIG AS
GOLFBALLS/TENNIS BALLS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES SOUTH...THINK
PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THAT ANY CEN KS STORM CHANCE WILL CONGEAL
INTO SOME SORT OF SOUTHWARD MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WITH DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AS 850-700H MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH CEN KS...JUST TO THE WEST OF
KICT...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CEN KS.
THIS WILL HELP FEED THIS EXPECTED COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT DRIVES
SOUTH INTO WRN OK. NOT EXPECTING THIS COMPLEX TO BE A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCER...AS PROGRESSIVE NATURE WILL KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DOWN. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT FLOODING POTENTIAL
LOOKS VERY LOCALIZED...SO NOT GOING WITH ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH
FOR TNGT.

NOT SURE HOW LONG THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 06Z/FRI...WITH POPS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN KS UNTIL FRI AM.

FRI-SUN: LATEST GFS TRYS TO LINGER SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE
AREA INTO FRI AFTN...BUT THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. SO THINK MOST OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BY FRI MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME
LOW POPS ACROSS SE KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRIER LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
FRI AFTN/EVE...AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEKEND TO DRY OUT FOR THE AREA...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS FURTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT STILL SOME 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR A PROLONGED VISIT INTO THE WORK WEEK.
MAIN SFC RIDGE DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SE US...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS...
POSSIBLY KEEPING ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER WRN/NW KS WHERE THE
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LOCATED. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS COME
OFF THIS BOUNDARY AND VENTURE FURTHER EAST INTO CEN KS BUT CHANCES
SEEM VERY SMALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO WILL KEEP THE
THINGS DRY THROUGH THU.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

NOT VERY CLEAR HOW STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET...WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND MARIGINAL CAPPING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WILL CARRY A LIBERAL VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN DRY AFTER THAT. ANTICIPATE
CONSIDERABLE TWEAKING ONCE TREND/EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  81  62  83 /  60  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  81  61  83 /  70  10  10  10
NEWTON          62  79  61  81 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        61  80  60  82 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  80  62  83 /  60  20  10  10
RUSSELL         62  82  61  84 /  60  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      62  81  61  83 /  70  10  10   0
SALINA          62  82  62  84 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  81  61  83 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     61  81  59  84 /  40  20  10   0
CHANUTE         60  80  58  83 /  40  20  10   0
IOLA            59  79  58  82 /  30  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  80  59  83 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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