Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
710 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

WATCHING SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORMS NORTHEAST OF DDC AND THOSE
TRACKING/DEVELOPING NORTHEAST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT SOME
POINT SEVERAL CELL MERGERS WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS JUST WEST OF THE
WICHITA AREA AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WHILE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING...THESE
MERGERS ALSO POSE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES.
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND AGGRAVATION OF EXISTING
FLOODING LOOKS HIGH OVERNIGHT.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS PM/EVE NEAR/ALONG A W-NW
TO E-SE ORIENTED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN CO ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS. STRONG INSTABILITY...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL SUPPORT LOCAL GUSTY WINDS/HAIL/HEAVY RAIN.
SOUTHWESTERLY 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT
WHERE SOME BACKBUILDING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AND CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH LOOKS VALID.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
GETTING ENVELOPED INTO ITS CIRCULATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE KANSAS REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHERE IT MAY THEN STALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONT
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE HOTTEST TWO DAYS OF
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 IN THE SOUTH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FORESEEN IN THE UPPER PATTERN...WITH
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MAIN
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A QUASI-PERSISTENT
WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A POTENTIALLY
CONTINUED WET PATTERN. TEMPERATURES START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...GRADUALLY MODIFYING TOWARD NORMAL BY MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL TRANSITION TO STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
MVFR AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  96  74  86 /  90  30  50  60
HUTCHINSON      73  95  73  83 /  90  20  50  60
NEWTON          73  93  73  84 /  90  40  50  60
ELDORADO        73  93  73  87 /  80  40  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  97  74  90 /  70  30  40  50
RUSSELL         72  93  70  81 /  90  10  50  40
GREAT BEND      72  93  70  81 /  90  10  50  50
SALINA          73  93  71  82 /  90  30  50  40
MCPHERSON       73  94  73  83 /  90  30  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  96  75  91 /  70  50  30  40
CHANUTE         73  93  73  89 /  90  70  30  50
IOLA            73  91  73  88 /  90  70  30  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  94  74  90 /  80  50  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-062100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
351 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD LEAD
TO MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

NUMEROUS COUNTY FLOOD AND RIVER WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS
FOR DETAILS.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL COUNTY AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
EFFECT INTO TUESDAY AND MAYBE LONGER FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
AREA-WIDE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ONLY PROLONG OR WORSEN THE FLOODING PROBLEMS
ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 106 DEGREES ARE FORECAST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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