River Flood Warning 44, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION SECTION.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITH WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS IF THE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO RE-DEFINE ITSELF...OTHERWISE THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LOW LEVEL JET
RAMPS UP AGAIN. MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE WITH-IN SUBTROPICAL PLUME OVER THE BAJA
REGION. MODELS HAVE THIS UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND MOVING SLOWLY OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE ARE STILL SEEING A OMINOUS
SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
PERIOD...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SPREADS
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE. THEREFORE WE WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SINCE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR OVER THE SATURATED GROUND SOILS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FINALLY QUIET DOWN FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO COME
BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MIGRATES NORTHWARD BACK INTO KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS WILL PESTER THE KRSL TAF SITE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SRN KS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING THE
KICT/KHUT AND EVENTUALLY THE KCNU TAF SITES. THINK THE STORMS WILL
STAY SOUTH OF CEN KS SO WILL NOT CARRY FOR THESE TAFS JUST YET.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  85  68 /  20  70  60  80
HUTCHINSON      95  73  83  67 /  10  70  60  80
NEWTON          94  73  83  67 /  10  70  60  80
ELDORADO        93  73  85  67 /  20  70  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  74  89  70 /  20  50  50  80
RUSSELL         93  70  80  64 /  10  60  60  70
GREAT BEND      93  70  80  65 /  10  70  70  80
SALINA          93  71  81  66 /  10  70  70  70
MCPHERSON       94  73  82  66 /  10  70  70  80
COFFEYVILLE     95  75  90  71 /  20  30  50  80
CHANUTE         93  73  87  69 /  20  40  50  80
IOLA            91  73  86  68 /  20  50  50  80
PARSONS-KPPF    94  74  89  70 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
416 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-070930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
416 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. PLEASE SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

COUNTY FLOOD AND RIVER WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS
FOR DETAILS.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COUNTY AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE LONGER FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
AREA-WIDE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ONLY PROLONG OR WORSEN THE FLOODING PROBLEMS
ACROSS THE REGION. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ

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