Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

TONIGHT:
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SAT. CURRENT THINKING IS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING
CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR CONVERGENCE CAUSED BY STRONGER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. GIVEN SURFACE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SURFACE DEWPOINTS...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN GENERATED. MAY SEE SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT
IT WILL BE. NOT PARTICULARLY FOND OF ANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
RELATIVE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CLOSEST MIGHT BE A TONED DOWN
GFS. THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STUFF TO REDEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK
IN BAROCLINIC ZONE...LIKELY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT COVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT. WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING AS
IS...BUT THREAT TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED...WITH
BRUNT/MAIN RISK ON SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.

SAT-SUN:
SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SAG ABOUT HALF WAY INTO FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING VERY TRICKY. COULD EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS PERSIST...LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. BELIEVE MORE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER AS
THERE HAS BEEN A STRONG SIGNAL FROM LAST TWO RUNS OF GFS AND
LATEST ECMWF FOR PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TO TRAVERSE AREA IN
RELATIVELY RAPID FLOW LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. BELIEVE THIS IN
CONCERT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY AND POOLING MOISTURE WILL GENERATE
A SIGNIFICANT MCS LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUN MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS. DEPENDING ON SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING
IN WAKE OF MCS...COULD SEE WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUN.

MON:
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA ON MON...MOST LIKELY FROM
ELEVATED STORMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER MCS SETTING UP
SAID BAROCLINIC ZONE. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND OVER TIME
WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. OF COURSE
DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN SURFACE PATTERN AND PRECIPITATION TIMING
WHICH WILL PLAY HAVOC ON TIMING/VERIFICATION. DOES APPEAR TO BE
SOME CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON THU. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BULK OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
WAIT UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS WHEN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GET RAMPED UP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. ANOTHER SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE BETTER INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO
PANS OUT...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT SOUTHERN KS HAS THE BEST SHOT AT
STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

ALSO FEEL THAT THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN LOW CIGS OVER CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
KSLN AND ESPECIALLY KRSL WOULD BE THE SITES MOST IMPACTED. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE LOWER CIGS LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  71  86 /  30  10  70  50
HUTCHINSON      70  89  70  86 /  30  20  80  40
NEWTON          71  87  70  82 /  40  20  70  50
ELDORADO        72  88  71  83 /  40  20  70  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  90  72  86 /  40  20  50  50
RUSSELL         69  84  68  82 /  30  20  80  40
GREAT BEND      69  87  68  85 /  40  20  80  30
SALINA          71  85  69  81 /  40  20  80  50
MCPHERSON       70  89  69  84 /  30  20  80  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  93  73  85 /  40  20  60  60
CHANUTE         73  90  71  83 /  40  20  60  70
IOLA            72  90  71  82 /  40  30  50  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  91  72  84 /  40  20  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-
068-083-092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
728 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
728 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
THREAT TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RICE COUNTY AND ALSO
NORTHEAST RENO COUNTY...AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COTTONWOOD RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD
WARNING STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

AT LEAST STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 100 ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EACH
AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON/LAWSON

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