Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

BEST INSTABILITY ROUGHLY EAST OF I-35 WITH 3000-4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
JET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DESPITE LESS THAN
IDEA LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR QUARTER
SIZED HAIL...BUT GOLFBALLS POSSIBLE WITH MID LEVEL STORM
ROTATION. NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT...BUT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF-
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION AND/OR LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT/STRETCHING PROCESS.
THIS IS MORE LIKELY WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM PARSONS TO INDEPENDENCE. SECOND LINE
FORMING ALONG FRONT AND CURRENT THINKING THAT THIS LINE MAY BE
LIMITED WITH SOUTHERN LINE OF STORMS LIMITING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY.
BY FAR...BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH. -HOWERTON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

TONIGHT:
BOUNDARY SAGGING ACROSS FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE
FOCUS FOR ROBUST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD
INSTABILITY AND JET SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS...BUT WITH MODE LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO LINEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY...THREAT WILL LIKELY SWITCH TO FLOODING. TROPICAL AIRMASS
REMAINS ANCHORED ROUGHLY EAST OF I-35...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
AND TRAINING STORMS WITH MAKE FLOODING LIKELY.

SAT:
WHILE PRECIPITATION IF NOT ALREADY OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS...SHOULD
EXIT BEFORE NOON. MEANWHILE MOST MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKING INTO AREA AS COOLER AIR ALOFT/SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER APPEARS THAT VERTICAL MOTION IN MOIST LAYER WILL
MAINLY BE NEUTRAL OR DOWNWARD...SO ONLY EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS. BELIEVE GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY OFFSET CLOUDS...
BUT WILL ALSO HAVE CONSIDERABLE WATER/SOIL MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE TOO.

SAT NIGHT-MON:
QUIET/MILD WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS KS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD AS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIATION ON
WHEN/WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARY DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUE NIGHT ALONG THE NE BORDER OF FORECAST
AREA AND SOUTHERN HALF WED NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND THE UNCERTAINTY ATTENDANT WITH THE
CLOUDS...WILL RUN WITH CONSENSUS/INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

MIXING HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO MIX OUT AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING CU AND TCU DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 19 AND 21 UTC AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KRSL...WITH SCT-BROKEN CBS WITH BASES 4-6K EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 22-23 UTC AT KICT...KCNU AND KHUT.  KCNU STANDS THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BASED ON SOUNDINGS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE...THUS INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUP OF +TSRA BETWEEN
31/23 AND 01/02 UTC AT KHUT. KICT MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIOD OF
NON-SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KCNU...WHICH LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  75  53  75 /  20  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      58  74  52  75 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          58  73  51  73 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        59  74  51  74 /  30  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  76  53  76 /  40  10   0   0
RUSSELL         53  73  50  75 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      54  73  51  76 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          55  73  50  75 /  10  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       57  73  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     65  78  54  75 /  70  20  10   0
CHANUTE         63  76  52  73 /  60  10  10   0
IOLA            62  75  52  73 /  50  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    64  77  53  73 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1115 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1115 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH GOLF-BALL-SIZED
HAIL AND 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT STILL IS IN QUESTION...HOWEVER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF LINE
FROM IOLA TO SEDAN APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
PM.

VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY AND WOULD CAUSE MAJOR RISES ON
AREA RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT TIL 7 AM SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS RIVERS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ANY RAINFALL REPORTS ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
505 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             NEODESHA                37.42N 95.68W
05/31/2013  E0.88 INCH       WILSON             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

CWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
505 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ095-096-312230-
NEOSHO-WILSON-
505 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEOSHO AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEODESHA...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHANUTE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9545 3738 9556 3738 9567 3747 9576
      3773 9539 3761 9522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 230DEG 34KT 3747 9559

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