Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
231 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG/SVR CONVECTION IS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CNTRL/WRN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL AXIS PUSHING EWD INTO MID
TN LEADING INTO EXTREME NE MS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THERE IS A LOW
END TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND SOMEWHAT VEERING PROFILE
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH THE GREATER PROB EXISTS MORE
INTO CNTRL/SRN AL WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A
SVR TSTM WATCH/SVA 52 IS IN PLACE THROUGH 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER...AS THE BULK OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EWD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS...THE SVR WX THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AND LIKEWISE THE WATCH WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE
CANCELLED STARTING WITH THE WRN COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIP
TAPERING OFF WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL LIKE WX IS THEN XPCTED STARTING TUE...AS A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN/MID PLAINS BUILDS INTO
THE SE REGION. THE SFC HIGH ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BECOME REINFORCED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION GOING PAST MID WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN
TURNS SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NW. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN YET ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WED...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL MORE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S. CONDITIONS/TEMPS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO REBOUND BY THU
AS THE SFC HIGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST BECOMES SOMEWHAT MURKY HEADING TOWARD THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT THE
OVERALL PATTERN BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE LATE THU AND INTO FRI...AS THE
SRN STREAM INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING ENERGY ALONG THE SRN END OF A
SHARP AMPLIFYING TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. GENERAL
CONSENSUS THOUGH IS NOT THAT GOOD REGARDING SPECIFIC FEATURES AND
TIMING WITH THE EVOLVING WX PATTERN...OTHER THAN PRECIP/SHOWERS
DEVELOPING INVOF MULTIPLE SFC WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER SE. HOPEFULLY
THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS IMPROVES AS MID
WEEK APPROACHES.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS /KHSV AND KMSL/ THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. THERE ARE 2 LINES
TO FOCUS ON ATTM...THE INITIAL LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM NEAR
RUSSELLVILLE TO ATHENS AND THE OTHER LINE JUST TO THE WEST EXTENDING
FROM NE MISSISSIPPI TO SRN MIDDLE TN. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE
OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITHIN THE STORMS...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO
35KTS AND HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 19-21Z WITH LARGER HAIL AND
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KMSL BTWN 21-23Z AND KHSV BTWN 22-00Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND RAIN ENDS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BTWN 04-07Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH TAF PERIOD
/09-18Z/.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    40  63  38  63 /  50   0   0   0
SHOALS        39  62  36  61 /  40   0   0   0
VINEMONT      38  61  36  61 /  60   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  37  59  34  58 /  50   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   40  60  34  61 /  70   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    39  61  33  61 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-190600-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
312 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH 6 PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT
AT THIS TIME HAS TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
HOWEVER...IN SOME OF THE STRONGER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...HAIL UP
TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM...AND OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
REQUESTED AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM THIS EVENING.

DJN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
318 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUSSELLVILLE            34.51N 87.73W
03/18/2013                   FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON A STRUCTURE ON COLLEGE AVENUE.

&&

NWSHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE FORD CITY         34.77N 87.45W
03/18/2013                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A PORTABLE GARAGE BLOWN UP INTO A TREE ON FOSTER MILL
            ROAD.

&&

NWSHUN