Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1231 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
/KHSV AND KMSL/ THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. THERE ARE 2 LINES TO FOCUS ON
ATTM...THE INITIAL LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM NEAR RUSSELLVILLE TO
ATHENS AND THE OTHER LINE JUST TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM NE
MISSISSIPPI TO SRN MIDDLE TN. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITHIN THE STORMS...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS
AND HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 19-21Z WITH LARGER HAIL AND STRONGER
WINDS POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KMSL BTWN 21-23Z AND KHSV BTWN 22-00Z WITH
WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NW. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND RAIN ENDS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE BTWN 04-07Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH TAF PERIOD
/09-18Z/.

DJN.83

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1059 AM CDT MON MAR 18 2013/

LATEST SYNOPTIC SET UP SHOWING THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST...EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE TN
VALLEY IS FAIRLY WELL-ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TO NEAR 60F. TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION EXIST...ONE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST OVER ARKANSAS
WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE ELEVATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPR LVL ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A NEGATIVE-TILT UPR TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ENTERING NW AL FROM NE MS HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH SOME DISTINCT LOW LVL
ROTATION SEEN EARLIER WITH A STORM NEAR TUPELO. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW LVL STORM ROTATION WITH MORE ORGANIZED/INTENSE UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY INTERACTING WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...STILL BELIEVE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

STEEPENING LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARM
SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THE COLD
FRONT /AND ANY PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ CROSS THE AREA. GOING FORECAST
SEEMS TO HANDLE EVERYTHING AT THIS TIME...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER MESOSCALE UPDATES AS THINGS EVOLVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HUN CWFA
COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM CDT.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-190600-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
100 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM
NEAR MADISON TO RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. HAIL UP TO
AROUND 1 INCH...ALONG WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
STORMS WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF TENNESSEE
RIVER AND WEST OF I-65 THROUGH 3 PM.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA
ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF INSTANCES OF STRONG
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BY 3 PM ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...5 TO 6 PM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 PM ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
REQUESTED AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM THIS EVENING.

DJN

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