Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS PRODUCED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALTHOUGH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FORECAST REASONING REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE REGION WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
STREAM OVERHEAD IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS.

THE WESTERN US UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AT LOW LEVELS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID
80S.

38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  80  65  78  60 /  60  60  40  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  81  67  79  63 /  50  60  50  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  78  70  76  68 /  50  50  50  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
612 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-101115-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
612 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PRESENCE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DETERMINE
THE TIMING...LOCATION AND SEVERITY OF RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY
LATTER TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND THIS MAY LIMIT TODAY'S
RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY DRIVEN BY A LARGER SCALE IMPULSE...
SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE WHEN AND WHERE OF
FUTURE DOWNSTREAM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
REMAIN UNCLEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY THAT COULD ALLOW HEAVIER RAIN AND STORMS TO FOCUS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA'S MORE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM OCCANSIONAL
EPISODES OF RAIN...OR SHOWERY WEATHER...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN AN AREAWIDE 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AWARENESS AND POSSIBLE REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
527 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISONVILLE            30.95N  95.91W
05/09/2013                   MADISON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300064

MCKINNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ195-196-092330-
BURLESON TX-BRAZOS TX-
539 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BURLESON AND
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 535 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLEGE STATION...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION AND BRYAN.

LAT...LON 3082 9620 3062 9617 3060 9619 3057 9617
      3046 9615 3046 9638 3063 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 259DEG 32KT 3057 9632

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
549 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             COLLEGE STATION         30.60N  96.31W
05/09/2013  M1.00 INCH       BRAZOS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT DEACON DRIVE AND RIO GRANDE

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300065

MCKINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRINITY                 30.94N  95.37W
05/09/2013                   TRINITY            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN IN TRINITY COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300066

MCKINNEY

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