Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS PRODUCED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALTHOUGH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

FORECAST REASONING REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE REGION WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
STREAM OVERHEAD IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS.

THE WESTERN US UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AT LOW LEVELS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID
80S.

38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  80  65  78  60 /  60  60  40  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  81  67  79  63 /  50  60  50  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  78  70  76  68 /  50  50  50  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
612 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-101115-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
612 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PRESENCE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DETERMINE
THE TIMING...LOCATION AND SEVERITY OF RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY
LATTER TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND THIS MAY LIMIT TODAY'S
RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY DRIVEN BY A LARGER SCALE IMPULSE...
SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE WHEN AND WHERE OF
FUTURE DOWNSTREAM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING AND LOCATION WILL
REMAIN UNCLEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY THAT COULD ALLOW HEAVIER RAIN AND STORMS TO FOCUS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA'S MORE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM OCCANSIONAL
EPISODES OF RAIN...OR SHOWERY WEATHER...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN AN AREAWIDE 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AWARENESS AND POSSIBLE REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ195-092130-
BURLESON TX-
342 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BURLESON COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 338 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKDALE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALDWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY .

&&

LAT...LON 3073 9662 3070 9657 3064 9660 3063 9651
      3060 9646 3032 9672 3032 9674 3039 9679
      3043 9687 3046 9688 3046 9690 3052 9690
      3054 9692 3055 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 279DEG 22KT 3074 9695