Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT IS
SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO CROSS INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MOVE ACROSS MAINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THIS DOES
SO... THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OVER. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT... AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF LARGE
HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
TRAVEL. MOST MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION FALLING APART AS IT
REACHES MAINE. HOWEVER... 16Z SOUNDING INDICATES PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY SO IF STORMS CAN TRACK TOWARD THE COAST OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE THEY MAY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES.

AFTER THE STORMS END... SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR A WHILE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. HAVE RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES AS HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH
AND TRENDS FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COLD. COULD SEE FOG FORM TONIGHT BUT THINK THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL LINGERS JUST INLAND OF THE COAST ON MONDAY.
EXPECT GOOD WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND INSTABILITY
INCREASING AGAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM BY MIDDAY
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLIDING WITH THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER... BUT
DO EXPECT ONE MORE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE
AREA BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE.
FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME UP... BUT STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO OVER 5 FEET. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO BE DIMINISHING MONDAY
NIGHT AND BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JENSENIUS
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...JENSENIUS
AVIATION...KIMBLE/JENSENIUS
MARINE...KIMBLE/JENSENIUS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-023-024-NHZ001>010-013-014-031845-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-COASTAL YORK-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150>154-031845-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ022-025>028-031845-
INTERIOR WALDO-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MEZ007-008-021815-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN OXFORD-
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES WEST OF ANDOVER...OR ABOUT 15
MILES WEST OF RUMFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND ANDOVER...ROXBURY AND
BYRON THROUGH 215 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4486 7060 4472 7044 4451 7082 4467 7090

ES

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