Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1135 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1130AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271 FOR ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF
WESTERN MAINE.

11AM UPDATE... MADE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POP FORECAST TO
SHOW PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. LINE OF
STORMS HAS FORMED IN VERMONT AND IS MOVING INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE NOW.
OTHER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE
WHICH MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

815AM UPDATE... HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO HOURLY POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THAT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED NOW BUT CHANCES INCREASE
AFTER ABOUT 11AM. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A LINE FORMING AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. STILL A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY.

7AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
ACROSS MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WERE
LOCATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED NORTH.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.

TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED FORWARD IN TIME A
COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
CONVECTION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 19Z- 20Z.

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THIS PACKAGE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY IN BOWING OR LEWP SEGMENTS.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL IN ANY DISCRETE STORMS.

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE DURING THE DAY...AND WITH GOOD SOLAR
HEATING OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG...WITH A FEW FAR SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.

LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL WHICH
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

STORM MOTION WILL BE RELATIVELY RAPID...BUT WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY
OVER THE REGION...TRAINING ECHOES MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOTION. FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS MAY HAVE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
FIELDS AND POSSIBLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF MAINE.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST GROUND AND MORE PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. USED OF A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING ALLOWING
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT ON A DEVELOPING WNW DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE DRIER NW FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN THE WEEK AN
UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SPREAD A MOIST UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO THE REGION WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS A MOIST COOL SE FLOW
STRENGTHENS. FRIDAY/SATURDAY THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST BUT SEVERAL WEAK COASTAL LOWS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
SPREAD STEADIER RAINS ACROSS THE AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BECOME
DEPENDENT ON THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS BROAD COMPLEX SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS BUT WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SCENARIOS. LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL AS THE MOIST DAMP SE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY LIFR IN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THEY GRADUALLY EXIT THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE TOWARDS
THE COASTLINE BY LATER IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND ALSO MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS.

LONG TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING AS WELL. SCA CONTINUES THRU LATE TONIGHT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE CRITERIA. SCAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE BAYS AS WAVES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING BUT WILL ALSO BE PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO AREAS
WHICH ARE AFFECTED BY THEM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-023-024-NHZ001>010-013-014-031845-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-COASTAL YORK-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150>154-031845-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ022-025>028-031845-
INTERIOR WALDO-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1230 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

NHZ002-003-021700-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN COOS-
1230 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COOS COUNTY AND GRAFTON COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

AT 1230 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARROLL...OR ABOUT
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BETHLEHEM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND TWIN MOUNTAIN...
WHITEFIELD...CARROLL...JEFFERSON...RANDOLPH...MOOSE BROOK STATE
PARK...YORK POND AND SHELBURNE THROUGH 100 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4462 7132 4439 7116 4425 7156 4436 7165

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1243 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MEZ007-008-021715-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN OXFORD-
1243 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

AT 1243 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 9 MILES SOUTH OF RANGELEY LAKE STATE
PARK...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RANGELEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
RANGELEY LAKE STATE PARK...RANGELEY...DALLAS AND REDINGTON THROUGH
115 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4509 7048 4491 7036 4473 7073 4487 7085

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
112 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MEZ009-021800-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-
112 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

AT 112 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF LAKE...OR
ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF EUSTIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND FLAGSTAFF LAKE...
THE FORKS AND LAKE MOXIE THROUGH 200 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4562 6983 4539 6973 4521 7026 4533 7034

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MEZ007-008-021815-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN OXFORD-
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES WEST OF ANDOVER...OR ABOUT 15
MILES WEST OF RUMFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND ANDOVER...ROXBURY AND
BYRON THROUGH 215 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4486 7060 4472 7044 4451 7082 4467 7090

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
206 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MEZ009-021830-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-
206 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM
EDT...

AT 206 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER THE FORKS...OR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST
OF GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND THE FORKS AND LAKE MOXIE THROUGH 230
PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4566 6975 4555 6974 4554 6977 4535 6971
      4528 6996 4542 7006

SCHWIBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

NHZ003-005-007>009-021930-
BELKNAP-MERRIMACK-NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SULLIVAN-
242 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SULLIVAN...WESTERN BELKNAP...
WESTERN MERRIMACK...COOS AND GRAFTON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
8 MILES EAST OF BARRE TO SPRINGFIELD VERMONT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY 330 PM.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND CHARLESTOWN...PLAINFIELD...
HANOVER...CORNISH...CLAREMONT...UNITY...WEST UNITY...MERIDEN...CORNISH FLAT
AND LEBANON THROUGH 330 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5
MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4330 7241 4336 7242 4359 7237 4364 7232
      4369 7232 4375 7222 4380 7219 4386 7220
      4393 7213 4400 7212 4409 7205 4417 7206
      4416 7158 4321 7178 4323 7244

SCHWIBS